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Technical Analysis Sep.9th

by on September 9, 2014 8:01 am GMT
 

EURUSD

Instead of taking a break from a sell-off and returning to the monthly S1 at 1.30 for a bit, EURUSD pushed through the support at 1.29. As a result, there are no more significant demand areas 100 pips beneath the spot price, meaning the decline is now likely to extend down to the 2013 low at 1.2750 in the nearest future. And while the weekly studies agree to this, the monthly indicators suggest that the Euro is already oversold and is ready to recover.

Traders’ Sentiment
The market is a little less bullish than yesterday—the share of long positions has gone from 60 to 59% during the last 24 hours. At the same time, the relative amount of sell orders has fallen quite significantly, from 74 to 59%.

EURUSD Pivot Levels Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 1.3018 1.3008 1.2989
Resistance 2 1.2989 1.2984 1.2959
Resistance 1 1.2941 1.2931 1.2941
Pivot 1.2911 1.2906 1.2911
Support 1 1.2863 1.2853 1.2881
Support 2 1.2833 1.2828 1.2863
Support 3 1.2785 1.2775 1.2833

GBPUSD

Although the downside gap after the weekend called for a bullish correction to 1.63, the bears did not loosen the grip and forced the Pound to give up even more ground. GBPUSD is currently testing the monthly S3 at 1.61, but the rate may as well come down to the 2013 Q4 low at 1.5850, where the bulls will have a much better chance of regaining control of the market, as implied by the long-term technical indicators.

Traders’ Sentiment
Though the gap between the bulls and bears narrowed, the former are still in a majority over the latter with 63%. As for the orders placed 100 pips from the spot, the difference between the buy (46%) and sell (54%) ones is currently insignificant.

GBPUSD Pivot Levels  Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 1.6328 1.6304 1.628
Resistance 2 1.628 1.6268 1.6226
Resistance 1 1.6187 1.6163 1.6193
Pivot 1.6139 1.6127 1.6139
Support 1 1.6046 1.6022 1.6085
Support 2 1.5998 1.5986 1.6052
Support 3 1.5905 1.5881 1.5998

USDJPY

As it turned out, USDJPY did not have to pull back to the 2014 Q2 low, the accelerated up-trend and monthly R1 at 105 was more than enough to send the pair above the first quarter high. The Dollar is now facing the monthly R2, but, given bullishness of the indicators on all three time-frames, should be able to reach the monthly R3 in the coming weeks—it covered the same distance during the last five trading days.

Traders’ Sentiment
As the Greenback became more expensive, the number of people believing it is overpriced relative to the Asian currency has notably increased, namely from 53 to 60%. Concerning the orders, 62% of them are set to purchase the Buck against the Yen.

USDJPY Pivot Levels Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 107.71 107.89 106.94
Resistance 2 106.94 107.03 106.49
Resistance 1 106.53 106.71 106.21
Pivot 105.76 105.85 105.76
Support 1 105.35 105.53 105.31
Support 2 104.58 104.67 105.03
Support 3 104.17 104.35 104.58

USDCHF

Although initially there were concerns regarding the ability of USDCHF to stay above 0.93, in the end the market proved to respect the newly established support represented by the monthly R2. Accordingly, the currency pair should soon cross the weekly R1 and then test formidability of the resistance zone around 0.9450 (2013 Sep high) that is currently keeping earlier 2013 highs safe from attacks of the bulls.

Traders’ Sentiment
While the sentiment of the SWFX market participants remains neutral with respect to USDCHF, since only 54% of traders are long, the share of buy commands is expanding, and it has already reached a substantial level—65%.

USDCHF Pivot Levels Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 0.9431 0.9441 0.9397
Resistance 2 0.9397 0.9402 0.9377
Resistance 1 0.9378 0.9388 0.9364
Pivot 0.9344 0.9349 0.9344
Support 1 0.9326 0.9336 0.9324
Support 2 0.9291 0.9296 0.9311
Support 3 0.9273 0.9283 0.9291