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Technical Analysis Sep.3rd

by on September 3, 2014 7:52 am BST
 

EURUSD

 

EURUSD Pivot Levels Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 1.3168 1.317 1.3153
Resistance 2 1.3153 1.3154 1.3142
Resistance 1 1.3142 1.3144 1.3136
Pivot 1.3126 1.3127 1.3126
Support 1 1.3115 1.3117 1.3116
Support 2 1.31 1.3101 1.311
Support 3 1.3089 1.3091 1.31

 

The U.S. Dollar gained ground against most of its counterparts, but failed to appreciate relative to the Euro. As a result, EURUSD continues to stand motionless just above the 2013 September low at 1.31. And even though we still cannot rule out a two-figure rally to the 2013 Q4 low from here, the overall bias will nevertheless be to the downside. For now the 2013 low at 1.2750 is considered to be a long-term target.

 

Traders’ Sentiment
The share of the bulls in the market declined, but the sentiment remains bullish—58% of traders are still long on the common currency. As for the orders, there are now significantly less commands to sell the Euro than yesterday (from 70 to 58%).

 

GBPUSD

 

GBPUSD Pivot Levels Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 1.6714 1.669 1.6664
Resistance 2 1.6664 1.6652 1.6607
Resistance 1 1.6565 1.6541 1.6572
Pivot 1.6515 1.6503 1.6515
Support 1 1.6416 1.6392 1.6458
Support 2 1.6366 1.6354 1.6423
Support 3 1.6267 1.6243 1.6366

 

In the end the bullish correction from 1.6550 did not manage to extend up to the May low. The currency pair turned around a little earlier, soon after reaching the weekly R1, and plunged 150 pips before stopping at the monthly S1 level. If the sell-off persists, which is a likely course of events, the next significant support will be at 1.63, represented by the monthly S2. Once there, the Cable will have to move only 50 pips South to re-test the 2014 low at 1.6250.

 

Traders’ Sentiment
After the yesterday’s dip there are more people believing the Sterling is now below its justified value. The percentage of longs increased from 56 to 66%. At the same time, the relative amount of buy orders also went up, namely from 53 to 69%.

 

USDJPY

 

USDJPY Pivot Levels Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 106.51 106.65 105.89
Resistance 2 105.89 105.96 105.53
Resistance 1 105.57 105.71 105.31
Pivot 104.95 105.02 104.95
Support 1 104.63 104.77 104.59
Support 2 104.01 104.08 104.37
Support 3 103.69 103.83 104.01

 

The bearish risks were not realised, and the pair soared up to 105.50—a major obstacle for further advancement, since this year’s highest point. In case this resistance is eventually broken, USDJPY will most likely set sail towards 110.70—the 2008 high. But if the bears do not let the price to rise, there are strong demand areas at 104 (2014 Q2 high), 103 (July high and monthly PP), and especially at 102 (up-trend and 200-day SMA).

 

Traders’ Sentiment
After being bearish 24 hours ago, the sentiment returned to being neutral, as 45% of positions are long and 55% of them are short. There is no more significant difference between the buy (55%) and sell (45%) orders as well (100 pips from the spot).

 

USDCHF

USDCHF Pivot Levels Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 0.9232 0.9228 0.9222
Resistance 2 0.9222 0.922 0.9213
Resistance 1 0.9208 0.9204 0.9207
Pivot 0.9198 0.9196 0.9198
Support 1 0.9184 0.918 0.9189
Support 2 0.9174 0.9172 0.9183
Support 3 0.916 0.9156 0.9174

 

Just like the Euro, the Franc is also largely unchanged with respect to the Dollar, even though the latter seems to be in demand throughout the market. And while there is a possibility of a step back to 0.9150, the bulls should remain in control and keep on pushing the price towards 0.9250, the main nearby supply area. Though the technical indicators suggest a different scenario—bullishness in the short term and bearishness in the longer term.

 

Traders’ Sentiment
Similarly to the situation 24 hours ago, at the moment the gaps between the amounts of long (46%) and short (54%) positions and buy (51%) and sell (49%) orders are negligible, as they do not exceed ten percentage points.