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Technical Analysis Sep.30th

by on September 30, 2014 7:19 am GMT
 

EURUSD

EURUSD failed to pierce the support at 1.2650 yesterday, but at the same time did not leave its vicinity, posting merely a 15-pip rally from the 2012 Q4 low. The immediate resistance is at 1.27, represented by the monthly S3, while a more significant supply level is considered to be a few steps higher, at 1.2750, where the weekly pivot point merges with the 2013 low and a falling resistance line drawn through the Aug 18 and Sep 4 peaks.

Traders’ Sentiment
The Euro stays more popular than the U.S. Dollar, since 60% of open positions on EURUSD are long (62% yesterday). But the currency seems to be facing a major resistance area, being that 68% of pending orders are to sell the common currency.

EURUSD Pivot Levels Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 1.2766 1.2768 1.274
Resistance 2 1.274 1.2741 1.2721
Resistance 1 1.2714 1.2716 1.2709
Pivot 1.2689 1.269 1.2689
Support 1 1.2663 1.2665 1.2669
Support 2 1.2638 1.2639 1.2657
Support 3 1.2612 1.2614 1.2638

GBPUSD

Though the bulls were largely defeated last week, they are not giving up, but keep hindering further development of the dip. Nevertheless, the decline is expected to extend down to this year’s low at 1.6050. If a rally then follows, there will be a risk of GBPUSD forming a double bottom. However, the pair will have to break the falling trend-line at 1.63 and a cluster of resistances (including the neck-line) at 1.65 to fully realise the pattern’s upward potential.

Traders’ Sentiment
The distribution between the bulls and bears is more or less the same as 24 hours ago—58 and 42% respectively. As or the orders, the percentage of the ones to sell the British Pound fell from 81 to more moderate 66%.

GBPUSD Pivot Levels Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 1.6332 1.633 1.6303
Resistance 2 1.6303 1.6302 1.628
Resistance 1 1.6272 1.627 1.6266
Pivot 1.6243 1.6242 1.6243
Support 1 1.6212 1.621 1.622
Support 2 1.6183 1.6182 1.6206
Support 3 1.6152 1.615 1.6183

USDJPY

Despite absence of any significant obstacles overhead, USDJPY is finding it hard to gather enough strength to continue the advancement. Nonetheless, the technical indicators are mostly pointing upwards and 109 is acting as a reliable support, meaning the risks are still skewed in favour of a surge. The U.S. Dollar is likely to keep appreciating and the 2008 high at 110.72 remains a viable medium-term target.

Traders’ Sentiment
There are more and more SWFX traders entering the market counter the main trend—selling the Greenback against the Yen. Already 71% of open positions are short. But there are more buy orders (64%) than there are sell ones (36%).

USDJPY Pivot Levels Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 110.35 110.33 110.05
Resistance 2 110.05 110.04 109.81
Resistance 1 109.73 109.71 109.67
Pivot 109.43 109.42 109.43
Support 1 109.12 109.1 109.19
Support 2 108.81 108.8 109.05
Support 3 108.5 108.48 108.81

USDCHF

By failing to overcome the resistance at 0.9530, USDCHF has confirmed the up-trend, which was initiated at the very beginning of this quarter. Being that it is less sloped than the one pushing the currency pair higher, we are witnessing emergence of a rising wedge, which in turn implies a reversal. And if the support at 0.94 is violated, the sell-off may not be contained by the demand between 0.93 and 0.92—0.91 will also be in the danger zone.

Traders’ Sentiment
The SWFX market participants seems to have exploited the latest dip to go long the Buck—the portion of bulls grew from 55 to 58%. At the same time, the share of orders to purchase the Dollar went from 65 to 76%.

USDCHF Pivot Levels Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 1.6332 1.633 1.6303
Resistance 2 1.6303 1.6302 1.628
Resistance 1 1.6272 1.627 1.6266
Pivot 1.6243 1.6242 1.6243
Support 1 1.6212 1.621 1.622
Support 2 1.6183 1.6182 1.6206
Support 3 1.6152 1.615 1.6183