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Technical Analysis Sep.2nd

by on September 2, 2014 7:39 am GMT
 

EURUSD

Although EURUSD has finally reached a major support, the bulls largely remain inactive. As a result, the pair is trading flat. And even if we do see an upward correction, the bias will still be to the downside. The Euro has broken out of the rising wedge pattern this quarter, meaning the sell-off may push the price through the 2013 low at 1.2750 down to the 2012 low at 1.2050. However, the monthly technical indicators are persistently bullish.

 

Traders’ Sentiment
Despite poor performance of the Euro, there are still more bullish traders in the SWFX market—they take up 62% of it. As for the orders, most (70%) of them are to sell the single currency, but their share is currently decreasing (from 81% yesterday).

 

EURUSD Pivot Levels Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 1.3171 1.3171 1.3158
Resistance 2 1.3158 1.3158 1.3148
Resistance 1 1.3145 1.3145 1.3142
Pivot 1.3132 1.3132 1.3132
Support 1 1.3119 1.3119 1.3122
Support 2 1.3106 1.3106 1.3116
Support 3 1.3092 1.3092 1.3106

 

GBPUSD

For now the Cable stays on a bullish path and may gain another 70-80 pips before turning around. Despite the long-term technical indicators mostly giving ‘buy’ signals, the current upward momentum is likely to be insufficient to break a high concentration of resistances around 1.67. GBPUSD has a better chance of falling back to this year’s low at 1.6250. From there the pair may start a decline towards the 2013 low at 1.48.

 

Traders’ Sentiment
The sentiment towards GBPUSD remains bullish, but is notably weaker than yesterday, as the percentage of longs fell from 65% down to 56%. Concerning the orders, there is no difference between the amounts of buy (53%) and sell (47%) ones.

 

EURUSD Pivot Levels Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 1.6695 1.6695 1.6669
Resistance 2 1.6669 1.6669 1.6648
Resistance 1 1.6641 1.6641 1.6636
Pivot 1.6615 1.6615 1.6615
Support 1 1.6587 1.6587 1.6594
Support 2 1.6561 1.6561 1.6582
Support 3 1.6532 1.6532 1.6561

 

USDJPY

Despite a high risk of a pull-back to the July high at 103, USDJPY preserved a strong bullish momentum. However, the currency pair is getting close to a significant supply area above the level of 105, which is represented by the monthly R1 and this year’s high. Accordingly, a dip down to 104 in the coming weeks should not be a surprise, and it will not invalidate the positive outlook. Meanwhile, the daily and monthly studies point North.

 

Traders’ Sentiment
There has been a significant change in the distribution between the bulls and bears, as the share of the former has gone from 53 to 39% during the last 24 hours. At the same time, the share of buy orders has plummeted from 56 to 32%.

 

USDJPY Pivot Levels Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 104.71 104.75 104.54
Resistance 2 104.54 104.56 104.44
Resistance 1 104.44 104.48 104.37
Pivot 104.27 104.29 104.27
Support 1 104.17 104.21 104.17
Support 2 104 104.02 104.1
Support 3 103.9 103.94 104

 

USDCHF

USDCHF keeps on grinding higher, being that there are no tough resistances nearby. The bullish tendency is expected to persist until the rate touches the 2013 Nov 7 high at 0.9250. However, there the U.S. Dollar will be prone to a sell-off, which should stop to develop around 0.9150—the 2014 Q1 high. But even a deeper bearish correction, as long as it is halted above the key up-trend at 0.90, will not change the outlook.

 

Traders’ Sentiment
The attitude of the SWFX market worsened with respect to USDCHF—there is no more gap between the bullish and bearish participants. But 50 pips from spot there are a lot more commands to sell (70%) than to buy (30%).
Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 0.9222 0.9224 0.921
Resistance 2 0.921 0.9211 0.9202
Resistance 1 0.9201 0.9203 0.9197
Pivot 0.9189 0.919 0.9189
Support 1 0.9181 0.9183 0.9181
Support 2 0.9168 0.9169 0.9176
Support 3 0.916 0.9162 0.9168