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Technical Analysis Sep.29th

by on September 29, 2014 7:59 am GMT
 

EURUSD

As it turned out last week, the 2013 low was unable to prevent the Euro from further depreciation. As a result, EURUSD is now testing the support at 1.2650, represented by the 2012 Q4 low. If there is a rebound from here, it is likely to be stopped by 1.2750, where the last year’s main trough coincides with a two-month down-trend. But regardless of the near-term fluctuations, the 2012 low at 1.2050 will be considered the primary target in the long run.

 

Traders’ Sentiment
Just as last week, most of the SWFX market participants are bullish with respect to EURUSD, namely 62% of them. As for the orders issued, 35% of them are to buy and 65% are to sell the European currency against the Buck.

 

EURUSD Pivot Levels Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 1.2818 1.2806 1.2789
Resistance 2 1.2789 1.2783 1.2757
Resistance 1 1.2735 1.2723 1.2738
Pivot 1.2706 1.27 1.2706
Support 1 1.2652 1.264 1.2674
Support 2 1.2623 1.2617 1.2655
Support 3 1.2569 1.2557 1.2623

 

GBPUSD

GBPUSD has recently confirmed the falling resistance line, meaning the current sell-off is in a good position to extend down to 1.6050. In case there are rallies in the process, they should be limited by the down-trend and 23.6% Fibo retracement (of Jul-Sep decline). And if the Cable closes beneath the yearly low, the 2013 Q4 low at 1.5850 is bound to become the next objective, even though the monthly indicators are against such a scenario.

 

Traders’ Sentiment
Over the weekend there was only a marginal shift in the percentage of long positions open—from 57 to 59%. In the meantime, the portion of orders to sell the Great British Pound soared from 64 up to 81%.

 

GBPUSD Pivot Levels Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 1.6395 1.6379 1.6364
Resistance 2 1.6364 1.6356 1.6327
Resistance 1 1.6301 1.6285 1.6305
Pivot 1.6269 1.6261 1.6269
Support 1 1.6206 1.619 1.6233
Support 2 1.6174 1.6166 1.6211
Support 3 1.6111 1.6095 1.6174

 

USDJPY

Although at first USDJPY was hesitant to continue advancement around 109, being well-supported at 108.50 allowed the currency pair to gather strength and overcome this obstacle. Now the U.S. Dollar is aiming for 110.70, namely the 2008 high, but it will have to breach the weekly R1 and R2 levels at 109.87 and 110.34 respectively first. The bullish behaviour is also implied by the indicators on daily, weekly and monthly time-frames.

 

Traders’ Sentiment
The SWFX traders remain sceptical regarding the Greenback’s ability to carry on outperforming the Japanese Yen in the future, as shown by an elevated share of short positions open in the market—67% of the total amount.

 

USDJPY Pivot Levels Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 110.7 110.74 110.12
Resistance 2 110.12 110.14 109.71
Resistance 1 109.64 109.68 109.46
Pivot 109.06 109.08 109.06
Support 1 108.59 108.63 108.66
Support 2 108 108.02 108.41
Support 3 107.53 107.57 108

 

USDCHF

The Greenback keeps strengthening and there seem to be no resistances in USDCHF nearby that could contain the present upward momentum. The closest dense supply area is expected to be encountered only at 0.9750, where the weekly R3 level merges with the 2013 Q3 high, just 100 pips away from the 2013 high. But even if the price slips before reaching these highs, the bullish outlook should be preserved by the dense demand zone at 0.94.

 

Traders’ Sentiment
The difference between the numbers of bulls and bears is still insignificant—10 percentage points. But there has been a large change in the distribution between the buy and sell orders—the former now take up 65% of the market (59% last Friday).

 

USDCHF Pivot Levels Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 0.9596 0.9604 0.9558
Resistance 2 0.9558 0.9562 0.9535
Resistance 1 0.9535 0.9543 0.952
Pivot 0.9497 0.9501 0.9497
Support 1 0.9473 0.9481 0.9474
Support 2 0.9436 0.944 0.9459
Support 3 0.9412 0.942 0.9436