The European currency has finally stepped away from the resistance at 1.29, and now it is getting ready to challenge the 2013 low at 1.2750. A breach of this support will expose 1.2650, namely the 2012 Q4 low. This will also most likely imply continuation of the current sell-off until the price falls to the 2012’s main trough at 1.2050. Conversely, should we see a rebound, EURUSD is not expected to wander far beyond the monthly S2 level.
Judging by the change in the distribution between the buy and sell orders, from 32 and 68% to 58 and 42%, the rate moved from the dense supply area and is now starting to feel the buying pressure—the share of long positions has already increased from 59 to 62%.
|EURUSD Pivot Levels||Pivot||Woodie||Fibonacci|
The bulls keep pushing the Sterling higher, but the recovery from this year’s low may not cross the resistance at 1.64 represented by the falling trend-line started in July. In a base case scenario GBPUSD should return to 1.6050, violation of which in turn will pave the way for a decline to extend to the 2013 Q4 low at 1.5851. But if the monthly studies turn out to be correct, the Sterling will have a good chance to meet the 200-day SMA at 1.6750.
Although the percentage of commands to purchase the Great British Pound has plunged from 75 to 38% since the previous report, there are as many long positions open in the SWFX market right now as there were yesterday—56%.
|GBPUSD Pivot Levels||Pivot||Woodie||Fibonacci|
Despite apparent insignificance of the weekly PP at 108.40, it managed to prevent further depreciation of the U.S. Dollar and initiate a rally. However, USDJPY has not yet gained a solid foothold above 109, which is required for the currency pair to confirm its long-term bullish intentions and re-visit 110.70—the 2009 high. On the other hand, this course of events is favoured by the majority of the technical indicators.
Regardless of the pair’s elevated volatility yesterday, neither the distribution between the longs (34%) and shorts (66%) nor the distribution between the buy (65%) and sell (35%) orders have been subject to change during the last 24 hours.
|USDJPY Pivot Levels
USDCHF finished yesterday’s session 50 pips over the tough resistance at 0.94, meaning the pair is now facing the 2013 Sep high. A jump over this peak will imply an advancement to 0.9750, 2013 Q3 high, due to absence of other important resistances capable of halting the recovery. Then the rate will be close to testing the last year’s high at 0.9850. In the meantime, correction should be contained by the two-month up-trend, currently at 0.9350.
The Greenback outperforming the Franc did not introduce significant shift in the sentiment of the SWFX market—the portion of bulls contracted only three percentage points to 55%. Meanwhile, there are now only 43% of orders to buy the Buck (65% yesterday).
|USDCHF Pivot Levels