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Technical Analysis Sep.24th

by on September 24, 2014 7:04 am BST
 

EURUSD

EURUSD keeps moving sideways below an important supply area around 1.29 created by the three-month down-trend and monthly S2 level. Accordingly, the current bias is to the downside, where the currency pair is supposed to meet the 2013 low (1.2750). And even though the monthly technical indicators are mostly pointing upwards, the Euro is likely to breach this support and move closer to the 2012 low at 1.2050.

Traders’ Sentiment
Due to complete inactivity of EURUSD SWFX market participants had no reason to reposition. Consequently, the shares of open long and short positions are the same as yesterday—59 and 41% respectively.

EURUSD Pivot Levels Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 1.2948 1.2942 1.2925
Resistance 2 1.2925 1.2922 1.2901
Resistance 1 1.2887 1.2881 1.2887
Pivot 1.2863 1.286 1.2863
Support 1 1.2825 1.2819 1.2839
Support 2 1.2801 1.2798 1.2825
Support 3 1.2763 1.2757 1.2801

GBPUSD

The Cable continues to put considerable pressure on the falling trend-line that has been enforcing bearish outlook since July. But now the currency pair seems to be respecting the accelerated up-trend that can be drawn through the lows posted starting from Sep 9. If the bears at 1.64 fail to stop Sterling’s advancement, the current recovery may extend up to another important resistance at 1.65, represented by the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.

Traders’ Sentiment
While the sentiment is more or less the same as 24 hours ago (56% of positions are long), there has been a considerable change in the number of commands to purchase the Sterling. Their share soared from 39 to 75%.

GBPUSD Pivot Levels Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 1.6552 1.6562 1.6484
Resistance 2 1.6484 1.6489 1.6441
Resistance 1 1.644 1.645 1.6414
Pivot 1.6371 1.6376 1.6371
Support 1 1.6327 1.6337 1.6328
Support 2 1.6258 1.6263 1.6301
Support 3 1.6214 1.6224 1.6258

USDJPY

USDJPY closed yet another day in red, as the pair is getting farther and farther away from the resistance at 109. However, the studies on all relevant time-frames are giving ‘buy’ signals, suggesting the sell-off is about to end. The nearest potential turning point is the weekly PP at 108.40. But the decline is more likely to reach the monthly R3 at 108. Should the selling persist even then, there is also a strong up-trend at 107.

Traders’ Sentiment
Although the U.S. Dollar has somewhat depreciated since the last report, there has been observed no change in the portion of short positions open in the market—66%. As for the buy orders, their share fell from 68 to 64%.

USDJPY Pivot Levels Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 109.69 109.67 109.34
Resistance 2 109.34 109.33 109.06
Resistance 1 108.95 108.93 108.88
Pivot 108.6 108.59 108.6
Support 1 108.21 108.19 108.32
Support 2 107.86 107.85 108.14
Support 3 107.47 107.45 107.86

USDCHF

USDCHF is still unable to gather upward momentum and surpass the obstacle at 0.94 that has been keeping the pair in a horizontal 100-pip price interval for the past two weeks. Nevertheless, the probability of the U.S. Dollar breaking out of the range to the upside is considered to be more likely than an alternative—violation of the up-trend at 0.93, despite a half of the monthly indicators being bearish.

Traders’ Sentiment
There is a slight majority of SWFX market participants believing the Greenback is overvalued relative to the Swiss Franc, as 58% of open positions are currently long. Concerning the orders 100 pips from the spot, 65% of them are set to acquire the Dollar.

USDCHF Pivot Levels Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 0.9465 0.9471 0.9434
Resistance 2 0.9434 0.9437 0.9415
Resistance 1 0.9415 0.9421 0.9403
Pivot 0.9384 0.9387 0.9384
Support 1 0.9365 0.9371 0.9365
Support 2 0.9334 0.9337 0.9353
Support 3 0.9315 0.9321 0.9334