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Technical Analysis Sep.23rd

by on September 23, 2014 7:25 am GMT
 

EURUSD

The situation has not developed much since the previous report, and EURUSD is still considered bearish. The downward-sloping trend-line together with the monthly S2 at 1.29 should keep the bulls at bay, while the bears are expected to push the price towards the 2013 low at 1.2750. Additional supports can be found at 1.27 (monthly S3) and at 1.2650 (2012 Q4 low), but there is a high chance they are going to be violated in the coming weeks.

 

Traders’ Sentiment
As EURUSD exhibits no volatility, there are also no changes in the distribution between the bulls and bears—59 and 41% respectively. On the other hand, the gap between the buy and sell orders narrowed from 34 to 26 percentage points.

 

EURUSD Pivot Levels Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 1.2925 1.2927 1.2897
Resistance 2 1.2897 1.2898 1.2877
Resistance 1 1.2874 1.2876 1.2865
Pivot 1.2845 1.2846 1.2845
Support 1 1.2822 1.2824 1.2825
Support 2 1.2794 1.2795 1.2813
Support 3 1.2771 1.2773 1.2794

 

GBPUSD

GBPUSD launched yet another attack on the down-trend at 1.64, which has been intact since the beginning of July. If the currency pair succeeds, the resistance at 1.65 will have to come into play. This supply level is created by the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and weekly R1 and should thus prompt a sell-off back to this year’s low at 1.6050. However, most of the monthly technical indicators still protest against such a course of events.

 

Traders’ Sentiment
There are slightly less long positions (57%) than yesterday (59%), but the overall sentiment towards GBPUSD in the SWFX market stays bullish. At the same time, the share of orders to sell the Pound grew from 52 to 61%.

 

GBPUSD Pivot Levels Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 1.6453 1.6463 1.6412
Resistance 2 1.6412 1.6417 1.6388
Resistance 1 1.639 1.64 1.6373
Pivot 1.6349 1.6354 1.6349
Support 1 1.6327 1.6337 1.6325
Support 2 1.6286 1.6291 1.631
Support 3 1.6264 1.6274 1.6286

 

USDJPY

USDJPY is getting further and further away from 109, but nonetheless retains bullish long-run outlook. The nearest support is at 108.40 represented by the weekly PP, though the current dip can easily extend down to the monthly R3 at 108. In case both these levels fail to underpin the pair, there is a rising two-month line at 106 that should be able to restore the upward momentum. Meanwhile, the weekly and monthly studies are mostly bullish.

 

Traders’ Sentiment
A notable majority of the SWFX traders reckon the Buck to be overvalued relative to the Yen, namely 66% of them. In the meantime, 68% of orders placed 100 pips from the spot are to purchase the U.S. Dollar.

 

USDJPY Pivot Levels Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 109.61 109.55 109.4
Resistance 2 109.4 109.37 109.2
Resistance 1 109.08 109.02 109.07
Pivot 108.87 108.84 108.87
Support 1 108.55 108.49 108.67
Support 2 108.34 108.31 108.54
Support 3 108.02 107.96 108.34

USDCHF

The U.S. Dollar continues to consolidate beneath 0.94, being unable to climb over the monthly R3 and 2013 Sep high. But at the same time, none of the important supports have been broken, and the medium-term positive outlook will not be invalidated unless the up-trend and monthly R2 at 0.93 are broken to the downside. USDCHF will then be expected to fall down to 0.91—monthly S1, 100-day SMA and six-month bullish line.

 

Traders’ Sentiment
Although USDCHF is trading flat, the difference between the bulls and bears is now significant—14 percentage points. Concerning the orders, 69% of them are set to buy the U.S. Dollar against the Swiss Franc.

 

USDCHF Pivot Levels Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 0.9463 0.9463 0.9442
Resistance 2 0.9442 0.9442 0.9426
Resistance 1 0.9421 0.9421 0.9416
Pivot 0.94 0.94 0.94
Support 1 0.9379 0.9379 0.9384
Support 2 0.9358 0.9358 0.9374
Support 3 0.9337 0.9337 0.9358