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Technical Analysis Sep.22nd

by on September 22, 2014 6:29 am GMT
 

EURUSD

The European currency is still headed South, where it is about to meet one of the key levels, namely the 2013 low. This support, given its significance, may trigger profit-taking. The resulting rally may potentially extend up to the resistance at 1.31 without compromising the overall bearish outlook. But once the demand area at 1.2750 is penetrated, the 2012 low at 1.2050 will become the next long-term target.

 

Traders’ Sentiment
The present distribution between the bulls and bears is exactly the same as last week—60% of market participants believe the common currency is going to appreciate. On the other hand, the share of sell orders jumped from 63 to 67%.

 

EURUSD Pivot Levels
Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 1.2996 1.298 1.2962
Resistance 2 1.2962 1.2954 1.2924
Resistance 1 1.2895 1.2879 1.29
Pivot 1.2861 1.2853 1.2861
Support 1 1.2793 1.2777 1.2822
Support 2 1.276 1.2752 1.2798
Support 3 1.2692 1.2676 1.276

 

GBPUSD

Despite a significant risk of the Cable breaking the negatively-sloped resistance line at 1.6450 last week, in the end the bears took the upper hand and forced the Sterling to retreat to 1.63. And while the near-term technical indicators imply continuation of this sell-off further, the monthly studies suggest the downward momentum may have already been exhausted. But as long as the resistance at 1.6750 is not breached, the bears should be in control.

 

Traders’ Sentiment
Most of the SWFX market participants consider the Pound to be undervalued—59% of open positions are long. As for the pending orders, the difference between them is insignificant at the moment, only four percentage points.

 

GBPUSD Pivot Levels Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 1.6686 1.6646 1.6605
Resistance 2 1.6605 1.6585 1.6513
Resistance 1 1.6445 1.6405 1.6456
Pivot 1.6364 1.6344 1.6364
Support 1 1.6204 1.6164 1.6272
Support 2 1.6123 1.6103 1.6215
Support 3 1.5963 1.5923 1.6123

USDJPY

The resistance at 109 proved to be a notable level last week, as it managed to stop a strong bullish momentum of USD/JPY. If the correction develops, the U.S. Dollar may fall down to the monthly R3 at 108. If there is not enough support to revive the rally, the dip could stretch down to 106.50, a two-month up-trend, and the bias will still be positive. In the meantime, most of the weekly and monthly technical indicators are pointing North.

Traders’ Sentiment
The SWFX traders’ sentiment remains distinctly bearish with respect to USD/JPY, being that the bears take up as much as 69% of the whole market. Concerning the orders, the buy ones are in a majority with a 66% share.

USDJPY Pivot Levels Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 110.32 110.32 109.89
Resistance 2 109.89 109.89 109.56
Resistance 1 109.45 109.45 109.35
Pivot 109.02 109.02 109.02
Support 1 108.58 108.58 108.69
Support 2 108.15 108.15 108.48
Support 3 107.71 107.71 108.15

 

USDCHF

On Friday USD/CHF recovered most of the ground it gave up a day before. However, there is still plenty of obstacles the pair needs to overcome in order to confirm its bullish intentions and reach the 2013 high at 0.98. The immediate resistance is at 0.9417, represented by the monthly R3, followed by the 2013 Sep high at 0.9450. Meanwhile, the key short-run support is at 0.93, created by the rising trend-line, weekly S1 and 20-day SMA.

 

Traders’ Sentiment
Just like last week the sentiment towards USD/CHF is neutral, as the percentages of long and short positions are nearly equal—55 and 45% respectively. But there are considerably more commands to purchase the Buck (76%) than to sell it (24%).

 

USDCHF Pivot Levels
Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 0.9508 0.9518 0.9459
Resistance 2 0.9459 0.9464 0.943
Resistance 1 0.9432 0.9442 0.9412
Pivot 0.9383 0.9388 0.9383
Support 1 0.9356 0.9366 0.9354
Support 2 0.9307 0.9312 0.9336
Support 3 0.928 0.929 0.9307