The pair has finally arrived at 1.31 (2013 Sep low and weekly S1), a key to the last year’s low at 1.2750 (also monthly S3). As long as the former support is not broken, there will still be a considerable risk of an upward correction to 1.33 (2013 Q4 low). In the meantime, while the daily and weekly studies are mostly pointing downwards, a majority of the monthly indicators implies appreciation of the European currency.
Considering the share of buy orders left in the market, merely 19%, it is unlikely that the 28-percentage-point advantage of the bullish participants in the SWFX market is going to increase any further in the nearest future.
|EURUSD Pivot Levels||Pivot||Woodie||Fibonacci|
Although the overall bias towards the Cable is bearish at the moment, the British Pound continues to recover. Potentially this rally may extend up to 1.67 (May low and monthly PP), but should be capped by it. If this is the case, the price will then be expected to move South until it reaches this year’s low at 1.6250, even though there is going to be a tough demand area at 1.6450 represented by the monthly S1 level.
The present distribution between the long and short positions in the SWFX marketplace is exactly the same as last week, when 65% of traders were expecting the Sterling to perform better than the U.S. Dollar.
|GBPUSD Pivot Levels||Pivot||Woodie||Fibonacci|
Although most of the past week the U.S. Dollar was underperforming, in the end it managed to erase the prior losses and jump over the 2014 Q2 high once again. USD/JPY should start following the path implied by the technical indicators and at the same time 104 should prove to be a reliable support. Overall the currency pair has a good chance to re-test the resistance at 105.50, namely the 2014 high, while the main support at 102 is intact.
There is no significant difference between the amounts of bulls (53%) and bears (47%) right now, meaning the sentiment is neutral. As for the orders, 56% of them are to purchase and 44% are to sell the Buck against the Yen.
|USDJPY Pivot Levels||Pivot||Woodie||Fibonacci|
There is now only one significant obstacle left for USD/CHF to overcome in order to reach the resistance at 0.9250, which is formed by the monthly R1 and 2013 Nov 7 high. Considering the near-term technical indicators, this scenario seems to be likely, but at the same time the monthly studies are not supportive of long-term Dollar appreciation. But there is still a four-month up-trend at 0.90 that says otherwise.
Just as last Friday, there are still a little more bulls (57%) in the market than there are bears (43%). But the percentage of commands to buy the Greenback placed 50 pips from the spot declined—from 59 to 38%.
|USDCHF Pivot Levels||Pivot||Woodie||Fibonacci|