EURUSD did not manage to reach last year’s low yesterday and returned to the monthly S2 at 1.29, which is now acting as a ceiling. Nevertheless, the overall bias is to the downside, and the currency pair is unlikely to bottom out near the support at 1.2750. The bears are expected to take the price much lower, potentially down to the 2012 low at 1.2050, before there is a major reversal of the present downward trend.
Right now a majority of the SWFX market participants is expecting the European currency to outperform the U.S. Dollar—60% of open positions are long. As for the orders, there has been a large increase in the share of sell orders—from 46 up to 63%.
|EURUSD Pivot Levels||Pivot||Woodie||Fibonacci|
Although GBPUSD hesitated at first, in the end it broke a tough resistance area near 1.63. This allowed the currency pair to challenge another important supply level at 1.6450 created by the down-trend line, which has been keeping the medium-term bearish outlook intact for the past three months. If it fails to stop the advancement and initiate a sell-off, we can expect continuation of the rally up to the 200-day SMA.
Despite significant appreciation of the Sterling lately, the sentiment towards GBPUSD has not been subject to change—59% of open positions are still long. Meanwhile, the portion of buy ones has plunged from 68 to 47%.
|GBPUSD Pivot Levels||Pivot||Woodie||Fibonacci|
USDJPY continues to gain ground, and for now it does not seem to be noticing the resistance at 109 formed by the weekly R2 and 2008 Sep high. The next obstacle, which should be more difficult to overcome, is the 2008 high at 110.70. Accordingly, there will be a high chance of a downward correction before the Dollar finally surpasses it. The dip may extend down to 106 and will still not invalidate the bullish outlook, as the up-trend will remain intact.
There are significantly more bears in the market at the moment than there are bulls—the former take up 70% of the total amount of traders and see the recent surge as an upward deviation from the true value of the Greenback.
|USDJPY Pivot Levels||Pivot||Woodie||Fibonacci|
The pair took a major hit after approaching the 2013 Sep high, meaning there is a formidable resistance area around 0.9450. However, if USDCHF does not fall beneath 0.93 (monthly R2 and two-month up-trend), there is almost no hope for the bears to be able to prevent the Buck from rising and setting its course towards 0.98—the 2013 high. Alternatively, the price will be looking for support at 0.9050 (monthly S1, major up-trend and 100-day SMA).
Just as yesterday, there is no notable difference between the amounts of long (55%) and short (45%) positions open in the SWFX market. But 50 pips from the spot the percentage of sell orders soared from 54 to 76%.
|USDCHF Pivot Levels||Pivot||Woodie||Fibonacci|