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Technical Analysis Sep.18th

by on September 18, 2014 6:56 am BST
 

EURUSD

The currency pair lived up to the expectations by breaking out of the recently formed rising wedge to the downside. As the support at 1.29 is now out of the way, EURUSD is free to descend lower, to the 2013 low at 1.2750, which is likely to be a difficult support to breach. If the bulls fail to stop the five-month sell-off here, the price will most likely fall down to the 2012 low at 1.2050 in the next few months.

Traders’ Sentiment
SWFX market participants used the latest dip to acquire the Euro at more attractive prices. As a result, the share of long positions went up from 56 to 61%. Similarly, the percentage of buy orders increased from 42 to 54%.

EURUSD Pivot Levels Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 1.3089 1.3069 1.3035
Resistance 2 1.3035 1.3025 1.2979
Resistance 1 1.2942 1.2922 1.2944
Pivot 1.2888 1.2878 1.2888
Support 1 1.2795 1.2775 1.2832
Support 2 1.2741 1.2731 1.2797
Support 3 1.2648 1.2628 1.2741

GBPUSD

Despite the U.S. Dollar appreciating across the market, the currency was unable to outperform the British Pound, which in turn is currently attacking the resistance area between 1.63 and 1.635. Considering the density of this supply zone (monthly S2, 23.6% Fibo, etc.), further advancement is highly unlikely. However, a close above this price interval will allow GBPUSD to target the 38.2% retracement of July-August decline at 1.65.

Traders’ Sentiment
As yesterday’s open and close prices were almost at the same level, the distribution between the bulls and bears stayed the same—59 and 41% respectively. As for the orders, as many as 68% are to purchase the Pound against the Greenback.

GBPUSD Pivot Levels Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 1.6446 1.6434 1.6402
Resistance 2 1.6402 1.6396 1.6359
Resistance 1 1.6334 1.6322 1.6333
Pivot 1.629 1.6284 1.629
Support 1 1.6222 1.621 1.6247
Support 2 1.6178 1.6172 1.6221
Support 3 1.6111 1.6099 1.6178

USDJPY

Following a brief correction USDJPY jumped 140 pips in one day, effortlessly piercing through the monthly R3 in the process. The pair is now trying to climb over the resistance at 109, represented by the weekly R2 and 2008 Sep high—the last bastion of the bears before the main 2008 high at 110.70. Judging by the technical indicators on the weekly and monthly time-frames, this defence is not going to last long.

Traders’ Sentiment
The bearish sentiment with respect to USDJPY is now as strong as five days ago, when 71% of open positions were short. Concerning the orders set 100 pips from the spot, 70 are to buy and 30% are to sell the Buck.

USDJPY Pivot Levels Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 110.65 110.87 109.67
Resistance 2 109.67 109.78 109.08
Resistance 1 109.11 109.33 108.71
Pivot 108.12 108.23 108.12
Support 1 107.56 107.78 107.53
Support 2 106.57 106.68 107.16
Support 3 106.01 106.23 106.57

USDCHF

USD/CHF has finally escaped the boundaries of the flag pattern it has been forming the last two weeks. Now the pair is standing in front of the monthly R3 at 0.94, which is guarding the 2013 Sep high at 0.9450. Accordingly, we may seen some consolidation between these levels while the bulls prepare for a push that is supposed to pave the way for a recovery to the 2013 high that is located 400 pips to the North.

Traders’ Sentiment
Apparently, some of the SWFX market traders used USDCHF’s thrust to take profits yesterday, being that the portion of longs contracted from 56 to 53%. There are also relatively less buy orders—60% (yesterday—62%).

USDCHF Pivot Levels Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 0.9573 0.9587 0.9503
Resistance 2 0.9503 0.951 0.9461
Resistance 1 0.9463 0.9477 0.9435
Pivot 0.9393 0.94 0.9393
Support 1 0.9353 0.9367 0.9351
Support 2 0.9283 0.929 0.9325
Support 3 0.9243 0.9257 0.9283