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Technical Analysis Sep.16th

by on September 16, 2014 6:38 am GMT
 

EURUSD

The Euro continues to trade flat, being unable neither to break the support at 1.29 nor to decouple from it and challenge some of the nearby resistances. However, in the end the bears are expected to gain the upper hand and push the price lower from here, though they might have difficulties crossing the 2013 low at 1.2750, which is likely to prove to be a tough level. But if it is broken, there will be a high chance of the sell-off extending to the 2012 low at 1.2050.

 

Traders’ Sentiment
The distribution between the long and short positions is the same as yesterday—58 an 42%, respectively. But the advantage of the sell orders over the buy ones has increased from 26 to 34 percentage points over the last 24 hours.

 

EURUSD Pivot Levels Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 1.303 1.303 1.3
Resistance 2 1.3 1.3 1.2976
Resistance 1 1.2969 1.2969 1.2962
Pivot 1.2939 1.2939 1.2939
Support 1 1.2909 1.2909 1.2916
Support 2 1.2879 1.2879 1.2902
Support 3 1.2848 1.2848 1.2879

 

GBPUSD

As GBPUSD has just confirmed the resistance at 1.6250, the Sterling should lose some ground in the nearest future. The first target will be the support at 1.61, represented by the monthly S3 level. Then, if the bears remain active, the 2013 Q4 low at 1.5850 will become the next objective. But in the long-term perspective, given the current downward momentum, the rate may attempt to re-test the 2013 low at 1.48.

 

Traders’ Sentiment
The gap between the two camps is slowly narrowing, but there are still a lot more bulls (61%) than there are bears (39%). At the same time, the amounts of buy and sell orders placed 100 pips from the spot price are equal—51 and 49%, accordingly.

 

GBPUSD Pivot Levels Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 1.6303 1.6295 1.6286
Resistance 2 1.6286 1.6282 1.6267
Resistance 1 1.6256 1.6248 1.6256
Pivot 1.6238 1.6234 1.6238
Support 1 1.6208 1.62 1.622
Support 2 1.6191 1.6187 1.6209
Support 3 1.6161 1.6153 1.6191

 

USDJPY

USDJPY is presently taking a break to gather strength before conquering 108 and thereby opening a path towards the 2008 high at 110.50. In case of a correction the currency pair should be underpinned by the two-month up-trend at 106, where it is reinforced by the monthly R2, weekly S1 and 20-day SMA. If the demand here is not enough to prevent development of a decline, the Buck may fall down to 103 before resuming a recovery.

 

Traders’ Sentiment
The distribution between the longs and short is currently skewed in favour of the latter that constitute 68% of the market (72% yesterday). As for the orders, 62% of the commands are set to purchase the Greenback against the Yen.

 

USDJPY Pivot Levels Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 107.68 107.68 107.52
Resistance 2 107.52 107.52 107.39
Resistance 1 107.33 107.33 107.31
Pivot 107.17 107.17 107.17
Support 1 106.98 106.98 107.03
Support 2 106.82 106.82 106.95
Support 3 106.62 106.62 106.82

 

USDCHF

Though the U.S. Dollar is hesitant to appreciate at the moment, the market is bullish—since May the pair has already covered seven figures. The consolidation that emerged after the accelerated advancement should eventually give way to a long-term recovery, which in turn has the potential to result in a rally to the 2013 just above 0.98. However, the monthly technical indicators are mostly against such a scenario—four out of eight are bearish.

 

Traders’ Sentiment
There are only marginal changes in the sentiment of the SWFX market towards USDCHF—54% of open positions are long. There is a little more volatility among the pending orders—the share of the buy ones fell from 62 to 59%.

 

USDCHF Pivot Levels Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 0.9416 0.9418 0.9394
Resistance 2 0.9394 0.9395 0.9379
Resistance 1 0.9375 0.9377 0.9369
Pivot 0.9353 0.9354 0.9353
Support 1 0.9334 0.9336 0.9337
Support 2 0.9312 0.9313 0.9327
Support 3 0.9292 0.9294 0.9312