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Technical Analysis Sep.15th

by on September 15, 2014 6:25 am BST
 

EURUSD

The bears failed to push through the support at 1.29 (monthly S2), thus allowing a small upward correction to take place last Friday. The current rally may extend even further, but EUR/USD will most likely make a U-turn before rising above the monthly S1 at 1.30. Still, additional supply that safeguards negative for the currency pair outlook is supposed to be at 1.31, where the weekly R3 merges with the 2013 Sep low.

Traders’ Sentiment
The SWFX market participants are moderately bullish with respect to the European currency—58% of traders expect it to gain ground against the Buck. Concerning the orders, a majority (63%) is to sell the Euro.

EURUSD Pivot Levels Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 1.3062 1.3068 1.3021
Resistance 2 1.3021 1.3024 1.2994
Resistance 1 1.2991 1.2997 1.2977
Pivot 1.295 1.2953 1.295
Support 1 1.2921 1.2927 1.2923
Support 2 1.288 1.2883 1.2906
Support 3 1.285 1.2856 1.288

GBPUSD

The Cable has finally reached 1.6250, after encountering a dense demand area at 1.61. Ideally, this resistance should prevent further appreciation of the Sterling, which in turn is expected to start negating the recent gains, as suggested by the near-term technical indicators. This implies a re-test and a subsequent breach of monthly S3. GBP/USD will then be in a good position to visit 1.5850—2013 Q4 low.

Traders’ Sentiment
Though the percentage of the bulls has somewhat declined, there are still more proponents of a rally—62% of the market. As for the commands set, there is presently no difference between the amounts of buy (46%) and sell (54%) ones.

GBPUSD Pivot Levels Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 1.6355 1.6365 1.6313
Resistance 2 1.6313 1.6318 1.6287
Resistance 1 1.6288 1.6298 1.6272
Pivot 1.6246 1.6251 1.6246
Support 1 1.6221 1.6231 1.622
Support 2 1.6179 1.6184 1.6205
Support 3 1.6154 1.6164 1.6179

USDJPY

The U.S. Dollar is getting close to a significant resistance zone around 108, formed by the weekly R1, monthly R3 and Bollinger band. Accordingly, we should be wary of a downward correction, even though there are almost no ‘sell’ signals among the technical studies. If there is a sell-off, it should be stopped before the support at 105.44/12 (two-month up-trend, monthly R1 and 2014 Q1 high) is violated.

Traders’ Sentiment
At the moment a large portion of the traders sees the latest advancement as overextended—as many as 72% of open positions are short. In the meantime, 59% of pending orders are to purchase the Dollar.

USDJPY Pivot Levels Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 107.81 107.85 107.6
Resistance 2 107.6 107.62 107.47
Resistance 1 107.47 107.51 107.39
Pivot 107.26 107.28 107.26
Support 1 107.13 107.17 107.13
Support 2 106.92 106.94 107.05
Support 3 106.78 106.82 106.92

USDCHF

USD/CHF continues to consolidate, as the bulls are dormant after a precipitous Sep 4 rally. However, as long as the support at 0.93 (weekly S1 and monthly R2) remains intact, the outlook will be considered favourable for the Greenback. Still, in order to confirm its bullish intentions, the pair has to surpass the resistances at 0.94 (monthly R3) and then at 0.9450 (2013 Sep high). Then we will be looking at the 2013 high at 0.98 as the next potential target.

Traders’ Sentiment
While there is no significant gap between the bullish (53%) and bearish (47%) market participants, the orders to buy the U.S. Dollar (62%) notably outnumber the ones to sell the currency (38%) against the Swiss Franc.

USDCHF Pivot Levels Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 0.9406 0.94 0.9387
Resistance 2 0.9387 0.9384 0.9369
Resistance 1 0.9358 0.9352 0.9357
Pivot 0.9339 0.9336 0.9339
Support 1 0.931 0.9304 0.9321
Support 2 0.9291 0.9288 0.9309
Support 3 0.9262 0.9256 0.9291