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Technical Analysis Sep.12th

by on September 12, 2014 7:15 am GMT
 

EURUSD

Since Monday the trading range has been narrowing, and EURUSD seems to have formed a symmetrical triangle as a result. Accordingly, being that the pattern implies continuation of the trend, the Euro is expected to break out of the formation to the downside, which will most likely lead to a test of the 2013 low in the nearest future. This scenario is also supported by the daily and weekly technical indicators, but not by the monthly ones.

Traders’ Sentiment
There is still no change in the distribution between the amounts of long (59%) and short (41%) positions, as EURUSD has not shown any willingness to move in either direction this week and traders did not have to reposition.

EURUSD Pivot Levels Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 1.3006 1.3004 1.2979
Resistance 2 1.2979 1.2978 1.2958
Resistance 1 1.2951 1.2949 1.2945
Pivot 1.2924 1.2923 1.2924
Support 1 1.2896 1.2894 1.2903
Support 2 1.2869 1.2868 1.289
Support 3 1.2842 1.284 1.2869

GBPUSD

With yesterday’s spike extending to 1.6276, GBPUSD has finally closed the gap, meaning there are no more reasons for the Pound to advance. The resistance at 1.63 should act as a ceiling and will thus force the bulls to give up the latest gains from 1.61. Once the monthly S3 is breached, the next support to be tested will be at 1.5850—2013 Q4 low. But if the bulls do not surrender now, there will be a substantial risk of a rally up to 1.67.

Traders’ Sentiment
The traders’ sentiment towards GBPUSD stays bullish, with 64% of all open positions being long. Concerning the orders set 100 pips from the spot price, 41% are to purchase and 59% are to sell the Sterling against the Dollar.

GBPUSD Pivot Levels Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 1.638 1.6384 1.6328
Resistance 2 1.6328 1.633 1.6293
Resistance 1 1.6289 1.6293 1.6272
Pivot 1.6237 1.6239 1.6237
Support 1 1.6198 1.6202 1.6202
Support 2 1.6146 1.6148 1.6181
Support 3 1.6106 1.611 1.6146

USDJPY

USDJPY is approaching the supply area formed by the weekly and monthly R3 levels, which can throw the price back to 106. However, considering that on the weekly and monthly time-frames the indicators are mostly giving ‘buy’ signals, the medium-term outlook will remain bullish as long as the up-trend at 105.50 is intact. Otherwise the bears may exploit a good opportunity to push the Dollar down to the July high 103.

Traders’ Sentiment
Just as yesterday, an overwhelming majority of the market participants believes that the Yen is undervalued and should therefore appreciate relative to the Greenback. As for the orders, there is no difference between the buy (52%) and sell (48%) ones.

USDJPY Pivot Levels Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 107.9 107.96 107.55
Resistance 2 107.55 107.58 107.33
Resistance 1 107.34 107.4 107.2
Pivot 106.99 107.02 106.99
Support 1 106.78 106.84 106.78
Support 2 106.43 106.46 106.65
Support 3 106.23 106.29 106.43

USDCHF

USDCHF stays capped by the weekly R1, but, provided that the support at 0.93 is not suddenly violated, the bulls should gain the upper hand in this local battle. This means that the nearest target is the 2013 Sep high at 0.9450, and, unless the five-month up-trend at 0.91 is violated, we can expect the 2013 high just above 0.98 to be revisited before the end of this year. However, we should note a lack of reassurance from the monthly studies.

Traders’ Sentiment
The market is undecided with respect to the future of USDCHF—52% of traders expect the U.S. Dollar to gain value and 48% of them reckon that an alternative scenario is more likely to take place given the current conditions.

USDCHF Pivot Levels Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 0.9419 0.9419 0.9397
Resistance 2 0.9397 0.9397 0.9382
Resistance 1 0.9379 0.9379 0.9373
Pivot 0.9358 0.9358 0.9358
Support 1 0.934 0.934 0.9343
Support 2 0.9319 0.9319 0.9334
Support 3 0.9301 0.9301 0.9319