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Technical Analysis Sep.11th

by on September 11, 2014 7:23 am GMT
 

EURUSD

EUR/USD stayed close to 1.29, missing the opportunity to make a correction up to 1.30, where it would have met the monthly S1 and weekly PP. Eventually the bears should push the Euro beneath the monthly S2, which in turn will result in the price falling down to 1.2750, the 2013 low. If neither this support nor the one at 1.2650 (2012 Q4 low) stop the decline, there will be a good chance of the 2012 low at 1.2050 being tested in the long-term perspective.

 

Traders’ Sentiment
While the share of long positions has not moved an inch since the previous report (it is still at 59%), there is at least some volatility in the percentage of sell orders, especially 50 pips from the spot—from 59 to 67%.

 

EURUSD Pivot Levels Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 1.3037 1.3035 1.3
Resistance 2 1.3 1.2999 1.297
Resistance 1 1.2958 1.2956 1.2951
Pivot 1.2921 1.292 1.2921
Support 1 1.2879 1.2877 1.2891
Support 2 1.2842 1.2841 1.2872
Support 3 1.28 1.2798 1.2842

 

GBPUSD

GBP/USD is currently trying to accomplish what it was not able to do earlier this week—fill a massive hole that appeared after the weekend. However, a recovery beyond 1.63 is highly unlikely. The Pound is expected to turn around before hitting the monthly S2 and then resume the decline implied by the daily and weekly technicals. And once the support at 1.61 is out of the way, there will be no significant obstacles until the 2013 Q4 low at 1.5850.

 

Traders’ Sentiment
Although the Sterling has recently increased in value, there is still a large number of traders considering it to be below its true value—65%. As for the orders, the difference between the buy and sell ones is presently insignificant—10 percentage points.

 

GBPUSD Pivot Levels Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 1.6446 1.6464 1.6338
Resistance 2 1.6338 1.6347 1.627
Resistance 1 1.6268 1.6286 1.6228
Pivot 1.616 1.6169 1.616
Support 1 1.609 1.6108 1.6092
Support 2 1.5982 1.5991 1.605
Support 3 1.5912 1.593 1.5982

 

USDJPY

The U.S. Dollar has just cleared yet another supply area and appears ready to continue the advancement, being well-supported by the two-month accelerated up-trend (currently at 105.50). The next objective is a combination of the weekly and monthly R3 levels between 108 and 107.50. If this resistance is overcome as well, USD/JPY will be in a good position to target the 2008 high that is standing next to 111.

 

Traders’ Sentiment
During the last 24 hours there has been a notable increase in the portion of traders standing against the trend—from 62 to 71%, as more and more SWFX market participants reckon the latest rally to be overstretched.

 

USDJPY Pivot Levels Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 107.98 108.1 107.43
Resistance 2 107.43 107.49 107.11
Resistance 1 107.14 107.26 106.91
Pivot 106.59 106.65 106.59
Support 1 106.3 106.42 106.27
Support 2 105.75 105.81 106.07
Support 3 105.45 105.57 105.75

 

USDCHF

Freedom of USD/CHF has been restricted by the weekly R1 from above and monthly R2 from below this week. But after the consolidation the pair should resume its journey. First, towards the 2013 Sep high at 0.9450. Then, if the bears allow, to the other 2013 highs around 0.98, while the 2012 peak and the parity level at the same time seems to be too far away right now, also considering that the technical studies do not look particularly promising.

 

Traders’ Sentiment
The sentiment of the SWFX market remains neutral with respect to USD/CHF—52% of open positions are long and 48% are short. In the meantime, the share of commands set to purchase the Buck fell from 72 to 66%.

 

USDCHF Pivot Levels Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 0.948 0.9484 0.9438
Resistance 2 0.9438 0.944 0.9409
Resistance 1 0.9403 0.9407 0.939
Pivot 0.9361 0.9363 0.9361
Support 1 0.9326 0.933 0.9332
Support 2 0.9284 0.9286 0.9313
Support 3 0.925 0.9254 0.9284