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Technical Analysis Sep.10th

by on September 10, 2014 7:46 am BST
 

EURUSD

After a quick dip beneath 1.29, EURUSD once again returned above the monthly S2. If this rally is going to develop further, the currency pair is likely to be capped by the resistance at 1.30, created by the monthly S1 and weekly PP. But if this is not the case, there is an even more significant supply area at 1.31, where the 2013 Sep low coincides with the weekly R1 and 20-day SMA. In any case, the target is the 2013 low at 1.2750.

 

Traders’ Sentiment
As the Euro is currently consolidating, there are still no changes in the distribution between the bullish (59%) and bearish (41%) market participants. Though the share of the sell orders has managed to edge up from 59 to 68%.

 

EURUSD Pivot Levels Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 1.3077 1.3089 1.3017
Resistance 2 1.3017 1.3023 1.298
Resistance 1 1.2979 1.2991 1.2956
Pivot 1.2919 1.2925 1.2919
Support 1 1.2881 1.2893 1.2882
Support 2 1.2821 1.2827 1.2858
Support 3 1.2783 1.2795 1.2821

 

GBPUSD

The Sterling stopped declining at 1.61, a demand zone mainly implied by the monthly S3. If there is going to be an upward correction, the spikes should not extend far beyond 1.63, namely the 2014 Q1 low and monthly S2. In the near term GBPUSD is expected to aim for the 2013 Q4 low at 1.5850, while in the long run, provided that nothing is fundamentally changed, there is a chance of the rate falling down to 1.48 (2013 low).

 

Traders’ Sentiment
The percentage of long positions in the market increased to the level seen five days ago, when 66% of traders considered the Pound to be undervalued. Meanwhile, the portion of orders to sell the currency also went up, but from 54 to 63%.

 

GBPUSD Pivot Levels Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 1.6264 1.6268 1.621
Resistance 2 1.621 1.6212 1.6173
Resistance 1 1.6167 1.6171 1.615
Pivot 1.6113 1.6115 1.6113
Support 1 1.607 1.6074 1.6076
Support 2 1.6016 1.6018 1.6053
Support 3 1.5972 1.5976 1.6016

 

USDJPY

Just as in many its other crosses, the U.S. Dollar took a break from appreciating here as well. But considering that the currency has recently closed above a strong resistance and most of the technical indicators are bullish, there should be no pronounced bearish corrections until the next tough obstacle at 108. By overcoming the latter hurdle USDJPY will pave the way for a test of the 2008 high, which is comfortably residing at 111.

 

Traders’ Sentiment
The bearish views with respect to USDJPY are getting more and more popular (from 60 to 62%), as the pair continues to move further North. At the same time, the relative amount of buy orders declined from 62 to 54%.

 

Forex Pivot Levels Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 106.93 106.91 106.7
Resistance 2 106.7 106.69 106.5
Resistance 1 106.41 106.39 106.38
Pivot 106.18 106.17 106.18
Support 1 105.89 105.87 105.98
Support 2 105.66 105.65 105.86
Support 3 105.37 105.35 105.66

 

USDCHF

While earlier this week it seemed that the weekly R1 did not pose a threat to the rally from 0.93, in the end the bears at 0.9370 forced the currency pair to retreat back to the monthly R2. Nevertheless, the outlook remains bullish, and USDCHF should reach the key resistance at 0.9450 in the nearest future despite the opposition from the monthly technical studies. A close above this level will imply advancement to the 2013 Q3 high at 0.9750.

 

Traders’ Sentiment
Though the SWFX market participants are reluctant to change their positioning (54% of traders are still long), there is observed a rapid growth of commands to acquire the Greenback (from 65 to 72%) set 100 pips around the current spot price.

 

USDCHF Pivot Levels Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 0.9428 0.9422 0.9404
Resistance 2 0.9404 0.9401 0.9379
Resistance 1 0.9363 0.9357 0.9364
Pivot 0.9339 0.9336 0.9339
Support 1 0.9299 0.9293 0.9314
Support 2 0.9274 0.9271 0.9299
Support 3 0.9234 0.9228 0.9274