Technical Analysis Dec.15th

by on December 15, 2014 6:40 am BST


EUR/USD currency pair appreciated during the last trading day of the previous week, as it approached a considerable resistance line, represented by the monthly pivot point at 1.2468. We do not expect the cross to breach this important level, which is likely to push the Euro downwards. Technical indicators, in turn, predict the pair will hover around the current levels for the next 24 hours, even though suggesting a decline in the medium-term.

Traders’ Sentiment
Comparing today’s market sentiment to Friday’s one, the number of long opened positions on EUR/USD decreased further to 46%, losing one percentage point. Pending orders in 100-pip range, however, improved to be positive in 48% of all cases.

EURUSD Pivot Levels Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 1.2603 1.2611 1.2544
Resistance 2 1.2544 1.2548 1.2505
Resistance 1 1.2502 1.251 1.2482
Pivot 1.2443 1.2447 1.2443
Support 1 1.2401 1.2409 1.2404
Support 2 1.2342 1.2346 1.2381
Support 3 1.23 1.2308 1.2342


The pair seems to have entered a period of consolidation; although, the question where it is going to move in the future remains wide open. The biggest obstacle for the pair to move higher is the monthly PP at 1.5755, which together with the strongly bearish weekly technical studies continue to put a downward pressure on the pair. Therefore, there is a risk of a decline towards this year’s low.

Traders’ Sentiment
Traders are getting less convinced that the Pound is going to gain relative to the US Dollar; but overall the bulls are still in the majority, as they take up 51% of the market, and this is a advantage over the bears (49%). In the meantime, the share of sell orders rose to 78%.

GBPUSD Pivot Levels Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 1.5793 1.5791 1.577
Resistance 2 1.577 1.5769 1.575
Resistance 1 1.5742 1.574 1.5738
Pivot 1.5718 1.5717 1.5718
Support 1 1.569 1.5688 1.5698
Support 2 1.5666 1.5665 1.5686
Support 3 1.5638 1.5636 1.5666


For the recent days the pair has been fluctuating around the 118/119 levels and seems well-supported by the 118 level. And even though the technical indicators are slightly more to the upside, the pair is not showing its bullish determination. We expect the USD/JPY cross to continue to trade around the 118 level, with a potential of testing the psychological level at 120.

Traders’ Sentiment
The sentiment of the SWFX market participants remains neutral with respect to USD/JPY, as of today 51% of the market participants are long. Concerning the orders placed 100 pips from the spot, there are  significantly more commands to buy, namely 73%.

USDJPY Pivot Levels Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 120.43 120.45 119.82
Resistance 2 119.82 119.83 119.37
Resistance 1 119.27 119.29 119.1
Pivot 118.66 118.67 118.66
Support 1 118.11 118.13 118.22
Support 2 117.5 117.51 117.95
Support 3 116.96 116.98 117.5


The price of Gold changed only marginally on Friday, as the bullion decreased to trade around $1,220 per ounce. At the moment the yellow metal is well supported by this week’s pivot point at $1,215, which we do not expect to be breached easily. However, if the XAU/USD cross succeeds in doing that, we can see the extension of the bearish move down to the next major support at $1,205 (monthly R1; 55 and 20-day SMAs).

Traders’ Sentiment
Distribution between long and short opened positions for Gold versus the US dollar on the SWFX market remains broadly unchanged for a fifth consecutive day in a row. During weekend, the sentiment stayed bullish on the same level seen on Friday, with 58% of all positions currently going long on the yellow metal.