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Technical Analysis Oct.9th

by on October 9, 2014 8:29 am BST
 

EURUSD

A day ago it seemed as if the down-trend at 1.2660 would prevent the price of the Euro from grinding higher. However, as it turned out, the pair did not turn around yesterday. Instead it closed 100 pips above the resistance, and EURUSD is already testing the supply implied by the 2013 low and 20-day SMA. But the rally can now extend even higher. The next cluster of resistances is near 1.28, created by the monthly pivot point and weekly R2 level.

Traders’ Sentiment
Despite a considerable increase in the common currency’s value, the market participants appear to ignore this change—the distribution between the longs and shorts is nearly the same as yesterday—52 and 48% respectively.

EURUSD Pivot Levels Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 1.2922 1.294 1.2838
Resistance 2 1.2838 1.2847 1.2788
Resistance 1 1.2789 1.2807 1.2757
Pivot 1.2706 1.2715 1.2706
Support 1 1.2657 1.2675 1.2655
Support 2 1.2574 1.2583 1.2624
Support 3 1.2525 1.2543 1.2574

GBPUSD

The market is driving the Sterling higher and higher. The supply at the September low at 1.6050 failed to stop the currency and allowed the pair to reach the down-trend at 1.62. Accordingly, unless this resistance is violated, the downside risks for the near term will still be topical. But a close above it will most likely imply continuation of the recovery, potentially up to 1.64, namely the 38.2% Fibo and 55-day SMA.

Traders’ Sentiment
Unlike EURUSD, this market is more responsive. With a rally in GBPUSD many of the participants seem to have closed their long positions, since their amount declined from 60 to 53% compared to the previous report.

GBPUSD Pivot Levels Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 1.6368 1.6386 1.6274
Resistance 2 1.6274 1.6283 1.6217
Resistance 1 1.6218 1.6236 1.6182
Pivot 1.6125 1.6134 1.6125
Support 1 1.6069 1.6087 1.6068
Support 2 1.5976 1.5985 1.6033
Support 3 1.592 1.5938 1.5976

USDJPY

USDJPY is putting more and more pressure on the support at 108, greatly increasing the risk of the level being breached. If this is the case, there will be almost no significant levels to underpin the currency pair until 106, where the 55-day SMA merges with the monthly S1. But if the bulls manage to pull themselves together and push the Dollar away from 108, we are highly likely to see the pair re-visiting the 2008 high at 110.70.

Traders’ Sentiment
The relative amount of bears in the market decreased, but they remain in the lead with 58%. As for the orders set 100 pips from the spot price, the portion of the ones to purchase the Buck grew from 45 to 58%.

USDJPY Pivot Levels Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 109.56 109.52 109.15
Resistance 2 109.15 109.13 108.8
Resistance 1 108.65 108.61 108.59
Pivot 108.24 108.22 108.24
Support 1 107.74 107.7 107.89
Support 2 107.33 107.31 107.68
Support 3 106.83 106.79 107.33

USDCHF

As the weekly S1 did not succeed at keeping USDCHF above 0.9550 for long, the pair is now testing the two-month up-trend at 0.95. Here the pair is likely to find support and try to end the sell-off from this year’s high at 0.97. However, if this is not the case, the next demand area to attempt to restore the bullish momentum is going to be the monthly PP together with the weekly S2 and 2013 Sep high near 0.9450.

Traders’ Sentiment
Just like yesterday, 63% of all open positions are long, meaning most of the traders expect the Dollar to preserve its tendency to appreciate. Speaking of the orders, there is currently no significant gap between the numbers of buy (51%) and sell (49%) ones.

 USDCHF Pivot Levels Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 0.9675 0.9663 0.9638
Resistance 2 0.9638 0.9632 0.96
Resistance 1 0.9577 0.9565 0.9577
Pivot 0.954 0.9534 0.954
Support 1 0.9479 0.9467 0.9503
Support 2 0.9442 0.9436 0.948
Support 3 0.9382 0.937 0.9442