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Technical Analysis Oct.6th

by on October 6, 2014 7:11 am GMT
 

EURUSD

EURUSD remains heavy and keeps sinking deeper. The next important cluster of supports likely to be hit in the nearest future is created by the monthly and weekly S1 at 1.2464/12. Once it is broken, there will be only the monthly S2 and weekly S3 near 1.22 guarding the 2012 low at 1.2040, which is becoming more and more likely target of the currency pair. However, the monthly studies still oppose such a scenario they are mostly pointing upwards.

Traders’ Sentiment
Unlike the distribution five days ago, the difference between the long (55%) and short (45%) positions is currently insignificant. On the other hand, there is a large gap between the buy and sell orders—56 percentage points in favour of the latter.

EURUSD Pivot Levels
Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 1.279 1.2766 1.273
Resistance 2 1.273 1.2718 1.2665
Resistance 1 1.2622 1.2598 1.2625
Pivot 1.2561 1.2549 1.2561
Support 1 1.2453 1.2429 1.2497
Support 2 1.2393 1.2381 1.2457
Support 3 1.2285 1.2261 1.2393

GBPUSD

The currency pair effortlessly pierced through this year’s low last Friday and found support only at the monthly S1. Now GBPUSD is in a position for a recovery, even though the technicals are currently mixed. The immediate resistance is at 1.6050 (previous 2014 low and weekly PP), followed by the three-month down-trend at 1.62. But if the bulls fail to exploit the opportunity to regain some ground, the sell-off will expose 2013 Q4 low at 1.5850.

Traders’ Sentiment
The SWFX market is moderately bullish with respect to the British Pound—58% of traders are presently holding long positions. As for the orders placed 100 pips from the spot, 48% are to buy and 52% are to sell the currency against the Buck.

GBPUSD Pivot Levels Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 1.6303 1.6273 1.623
Resistance 2 1.623 1.6215 1.6151
Resistance 1 1.6098 1.6068 1.6103
Pivot 1.6025 1.601 1.6025
Support 1 1.5894 1.5864 1.5947
Support 2 1.582 1.5805 1.5899
Support 3 1.5689 1.5659 1.582

USDJPY

The U.S. Dollar is poised for even more gains against the Yen—the technical indicators on the daily and weekly time-frames are bullish and the pair has recently bottomed out at 108. If this is the case, USDJPY will soon reach the 2008 high at 110.72, and the next major peak will then be only the 2007 Dec maximum at 114.70. However, there will still be the monthly pivots at 111.63 and 113.61 standing in the way.

Traders’ Sentiment
After becoming neutral after the price’s drop to 108 the market is returning to being bearish—the share of short positions advanced from 54 to 59%. In the meantime, the portion of buy orders soared from 39 to 65%.

USDCHF Pivot Levels
Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 111.66 111.84 110.78
Resistance 2 110.78 110.87 110.25
Resistance 1 110.27 110.45 109.92
Pivot 109.39 109.48 109.39
Support 1 108.88 109.06 108.86
Support 2 108 108.09 108.53
Support 3 107.49 107.67 108

USDCHF

Although the trading range of USDCHF has recently narrowed, while the Greenback has been appreciating, which usually portends a reversal (as a rising wedge), the fundamentals favoured the U.S. currency and it jumped higher. Accordingly, since the downside risks are no longer topical, except for tepid correctional declines, we can focus on the upside—the first resistance is at 0.9705 (monthly R1), which safeguards the 2013 Q3 high at 0.9750.

Traders’ Sentiment
The ratio between the bulls and bears is more or less the same as yesterday—65 and 35% respectively. Nevertheless, there are substantially more commands to purchase the U.S. Dollar than last week—77 instead of 55%.

USDCHF Pivot Levels Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 0.9866 0.9884 0.9775
Resistance 2 0.9775 0.9784 0.972
Resistance 1 0.9724 0.9742 0.9687
Pivot 0.9632 0.9641 0.9632
Support 1 0.9581 0.9599 0.9577
Support 2 0.9489 0.9498 0.9544
Support 3 0.9438 0.9456 0.9489