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Technical Analysis Oct.3rd

by on October 3, 2014 8:23 am BST
 

EURUSD

Despite the potentially game-changing events that transpired yesterday, EURUSD did not react to the fundamental news and did not violate any of the important levels. The immediate resistance remains at 1.2660, followed by a down-trend at 1.2750 (reinforced by he weekly PP and 2013 low). If the recovery from 1.26 continues, the latter level is expected to act as a ceiling and re-establish a decline to 1.2040—2012 low.

 

Traders’ Sentiment
There is still no consensus among the SWFX market participants with respect to the future of the Euro—51% expect a rally and 49% expect a dip. As for the orders, 57% are to sell the common currency against the U.S. Dollar.
EURUSD Pivot Levels Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 1.2791 1.2795 1.2745
Resistance 2 1.2745 1.2747 1.2712
Resistance 1 1.2706 1.271 1.2692
Pivot 1.266 1.2662 1.266
Support 1 1.2621 1.2625 1.2628
Support 2 1.2575 1.2577 1.2608
Support 3 1.2536 1.254 1.2575

GBPUSD

Although GBPUSD initially found support at 1.6162 (weekly S1), the currency pair stopped 50 pips short of reaching the supply area near 1.63 and turned around. And so, the sell-off continues—the next target is this year’s lowest point at 1.6050. If the price closes below this level, the Sterling will most likely continue to descend. First, towards the monthly S1 at 1.5960; then, to the 2013 Q4 low at 1.5850.

 

Traders’ Sentiment
The bulls do have an advantage right now over the bears, but it is fragile—merely 12 percentage points. Concerning the pending orders, there is currently no significant difference between the amounts of buy (51%) and sell (49%) ones.
GBPUSD Pivot Levels Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 1.6371 1.6363 1.631
Resistance 2 1.631 1.6306 1.6258
Resistance 1 1.6234 1.6226 1.6225
Pivot 1.6173 1.6169 1.6173
Support 1 1.6096 1.6088 1.6121
Support 2 1.6036 1.6032 1.6088
Support 3 1.5959 1.5951 1.6036

USDJPY

USDJPY had to come all the way back to 108 in order to revive the bullish activity. There market confirmed the rising trend-line and the monthly PP as the main medium-term support. The price is now ready to launch an attack on the resistance at 109 (weekly PP and 2008 Sep high). Once this obstacle it out of the way, the U.S. Dollar will be expected to target 110.70, namely the 2008 high, as implied by the daily and weekly technical indicators.

 

Traders’ Sentiment
While only yesterday there was a substantial gap (20 percentage points) between the shares of long and short positions open on USDJPY, today this difference is already negligible—eight percentage points.
USDJPY Pivot Levels Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 110.12 110.12 109.6
Resistance 2 109.6 109.6 109.19
Resistance 1 109.05 109.05 108.94
Pivot 108.53 108.53 108.53
Support 1 107.98 107.98 108.12
Support 2 107.46 107.46 107.87
Support 3 106.91 106.91 107.46

USDCHF

Considering that the resistance at 0.96 withstood the buying pressure, there is an increased likelihood of USDCHF retreating to 0.9450. There the Greenback should be underpinned by the monthly PP, 2013 Sep high and two-month up-trend. However, despite the density of this demand zone, it may not hold, being that the pair has been forming a rising wedge since early July. The break-out to the downside will most likely entail losses at least to 0.93.

 

Traders’ Sentiment
The bullish market participants keep their majority in the market intact—they take up 66%. In the meantime, there has been a large drop in the share of buy commands since the previous report—from 74 to 55%.
USDCHF Pivot Levels
Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 0.9638 0.9636 0.9609
Resistance 2 0.9609 0.9608 0.9585
Resistance 1 0.9575 0.9573 0.957
Pivot 0.9546 0.9545 0.9546
Support 1 0.9512 0.951 0.9522
Support 2 0.9483 0.9482 0.9507
Support 3 0.9448 0.9446 0.9483