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Technical Analysis Oct.2nd

by on October 2, 2014 7:17 am BST
 

EURUSD

Continuation of Tuesday’s sell-off did not take place yesterday—the support at 1.26, represented by the weekly S1 and Bollinger band, remains intact. In case of a rally from here the currency pair will encounter 1.2660—2012 Q4 low. If the bulls keep pushing the price higher—there is a cluster of resistances at 1.2750, consisting of the 2013 low, weekly PP and falling trend-line that should prevent further appreciation of the Euro.

 

Traders’ Sentiment
The SWFX market participants are undecided with respect to the Euro, being that the amounts of long and short positions open are equal. However, there are more sell orders (64%) than there are buy ones (36%).
EURUSD Pivot Levels Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 1.2702 1.2706 1.2671
Resistance 2 1.2671 1.2673 1.265
Resistance 1 1.2646 1.265 1.2636
Pivot 1.2615 1.2617 1.2615
Support 1 1.259 1.2594 1.2594
Support 2 1.2559 1.2561 1.258
Support 3 1.2534 1.2538 1.2559

GBPUSD

After hitting the weekly S1 during yesterday’s trading sessions, GBPUSD is currently moving counter the major trend—towards the negatively-sloped line at 1.63. Considering that this resistance is also reinforced by the monthly PP and 23.6% Fibo, the chance of the Sterling rising above this supply area is low. Instead, the pair is expected to resume the decline and re-visit this year’s lowest point at 1.6050, as suggested by the daily and weekly studies.

Traders’ Sentiment
Just like in EURUSD, here the difference between the bulls and bears is also insignificant—it amounts only to 10 percentage points. As for the pending orders, there is a slight advantage of sell commands (57%) over the buy ones (43%).
GBPUSD Pivot Levels Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 1.6329 1.6323 1.629
Resistance 2 1.629 1.6287 1.6256
Resistance 1 1.6239 1.6233 1.6234
Pivot 1.62 1.6197 1.62
Support 1 1.6149 1.6143 1.6166
Support 2 1.611 1.6107 1.6144
Support 3 1.6059 1.6053 1.611

USDJPY

As it turned out, USDJPY did not have to touch the 2008 high in order to come under strong selling pressure. Right now the spot is 100 pips below the Tuesday’s close, as the weekly PP and 2008 Sep high at 109 failed to provide sufficient support. At the moment the U.S. Dollar is facing the weekly S1 at 108.50, but this downward correction has the potential to extend to 108. Here the bears should be stopped by the monthly PP and two-month up-trend.

Traders’ Sentiment
As a result of a large drop in price there are considerably less bears in the market than there were yesterday. However, the short positions still constitute a majority—60%. There are also more orders to sell the Buck—65% of the total amount.
USDJPY Pivot Levels
Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 111 110.84 110.54
Resistance 2 110.54 110.46 110.07
Resistance 1 109.77 109.61 109.79
Pivot 109.32 109.24 109.32
Support 1 108.55 108.39 108.85
Support 2 108.1 108.02 108.57
Support 3 107.33 107.17 108.1

USDCHF

USDCHF keeps standing close to the resistance at 0.9586/78. If the sellers here manage to send the price down to 0.9450—the risk of a break-out to the downside will substantially increase, since the market will confirm formation of a rising wedge. Conversely, the if Greenback continues to appreciate and ignores the nearby resistances, the next target will be the 2013 Q3 high and weekly R3 at 0.9750 before the 2013 high 0.9840.

Traders’ Sentiment
While the distribution between the bulls and bears levelled off throughout other currency pairs, in USDCHF the former improved their positions—now they take up 67% of the whole market (62% yesterday).
USDCHF Pivot Levels Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 0.964 0.9638 0.9618
Resistance 2 0.9618 0.9617 0.9598
Resistance 1 0.9589 0.9587 0.9586
Pivot 0.9567 0.9566 0.9567
Support 1 0.9538 0.9536 0.9548
Support 2 0.9516 0.9515 0.9536
Support 3 0.9488 0.9486 0.9516