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Technical Analysis Oct.21st

by on October 21, 2014 6:55 am GMT
 

EURUSD

EURUSD respected an accelerated up-trend that connects the lows seen on Oct 6 and 15, and the pair is now moving higher. The support at 1.2750 was also reinforced by the weekly PP and 2013 low. However, the upside potential of the Euro should be limited by the resistance between 1.2890 and 1.2850, which is created by the weekly R1, 55-day SMA and 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the May-Oct down-move.

Traders’ Sentiment
There has been a slight shift in favour of the short positions, as their share went up by two percentage points. Nonetheless, the difference between the amounts of the bulls (47%) and the bears (53%) remains insignificant.

EURUSD Pivot Levels Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 1.2916 1.2922 1.2867
Resistance 2 1.2867 1.287 1.2834
Resistance 1 1.2831 1.2837 1.2814
Pivot 1.2781 1.2784 1.2781
Support 1 1.2745 1.2751 1.2748
Support 2 1.2695 1.2698 1.2728
Support 3 1.266 1.2666 1.2695

GBPUSD

Although the four-month down-trend at 1.61 was supposed to keep the downward momentum intact, yesterday it was breached to the upside. The next closest resistance is at 1.6185 represented by the weekly R1, but the possibility of a rally higher, up to 1.63, is high. Here the bullish run should come to an end, being that the supply is implied by the monthly PP, weekly R2 and 55-day SMA. Moreover, the weekly technical indicators are mostly bearish.

Traders’ Sentiment
The majority turned out to be right—the British Pound outperformed the Greenback, while most (60%) of the open positions were long. On the other hand, there is an increasing number of sell orders nearby, currently standing at 60%.

GBPUSD Pivot Levels Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 1.6296 1.6304 1.6237
Resistance 2 1.6237 1.6241 1.6199
Resistance 1 1.6196 1.6204 1.6176
Pivot 1.6138 1.6142 1.6138
Support 1 1.6097 1.6105 1.61
Support 2 1.6039 1.6043 1.6077
Support 3 1.5998 1.6006 1.6039

USDJPY

Despite the absence of any notable levels USDJPY came under strong selling pressure and as a result, retreated back to a cluster of supports at 106.80/60. If the demand here is not enough to stop the decline, the area between 106 and 105.50 (weekly and monthly S1, 50% Fibo) will be expected to prevent further depreciation of the US Dollar, just like it did last week. Meanwhile, even lower, at 104.50, there is a cluster created by the 100-day SMA and 61.8% Fibo.

Traders’ Sentiment
A dip in the value of the Buck brought the distribution between the bulls and the bears into balance, as the difference between them narrowed to insignificant eight percentage points. As for the orders, 51% of them are to buy and 49% are to sell the Dollar.

USDJPY Pivot Levels Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 107.87 107.81 107.63
Resistance 2 107.63 107.6 107.4
Resistance 1 107.26 107.2 107.25
Pivot 107.02 106.99 107.02
Support 1 106.65 106.59 106.79
Support 2 106.41 106.38 106.64
Support 3 106.04 105.98 106.41

USDCHF

USDCHF failed to gain a foothold above 0.9450—it has already nullified the progress made during the last two days of the previous week. The currency pair is likely to find support at 0.9370 (weekly S1 and 55-day SMA), but we cannot rule out a deeper dive, down to the 38.2% Fibo of the May-Oct advancement. Nevertheless, a sell-off from this year’s high is still considered to be a correction rather than a reversal of the broad USD strengthening.

Traders’ Sentiment
The SWFX market is largely optimistic regarding the perspectives of USDCHF—as many as 64% of traders are holding long positions at the moment. As for the commands, right now there is no real difference between the buy (52%) and sell (48%) ones.

USDCHF Pivot Levels Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 0.9534 0.9528 0.9507
Resistance 2 0.9507 0.9504 0.9482
Resistance 1 0.9469 0.9463 0.9467
Pivot 0.9442 0.9439 0.9442
Support 1 0.9405 0.9399 0.9417
Support 2 0.9377 0.9374 0.9402
Support 3 0.934 0.9334 0.9377