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Technical Analysis Oct.20th

by on October 20, 2014 5:35 am BST
 

EURUSD

Although there is an immediate resistance level at 1.2786, represented by the monthly pivot point, the supply between 1.29 and 1.2850 is more likely to act as a ceiling this week. If the price approaches this area, we will expect a strong sell-off. Eventually the European currency should erode the support at 1.2750 (weekly PP and 2013 low) in order to open a path towards this year’s lowest value at 1.25 and challenge it.

Traders’ Sentiment
Neither the bulls nor the bears are able to gain an advantage over one another—their shares are still nearly equal at 49 and 51% respectively. But there is a little more buy orders (58%) in the market than there are to sell (42%).

EURUSD Pivot Levels Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 1.291 1.29 1.2873
Resistance 2 1.2873 1.2868 1.2838
Resistance 1 1.2816 1.2806 1.2816
Pivot 1.278 1.2775 1.278
Support 1 1.2723 1.2713 1.2744
Support 2 1.2687 1.2682 1.2722
Support 3 1.263 1.262 1.2687

GBPUSD

The Cable keeps trading right beneath the four-month down-trend, meaning the downside risks are currently elevated. The base case scenario is GBPUSD confirming the resistance at 1.61 and thus terminating the upward correction from the 2013 Q4 low. The support at 1.5850 is therefore considered to be the most likely target. The negative bias is also suggested by the technical indicators, especially on the daily and weekly time-frames.

Traders’ Sentiment
Most of the SWFX market participants believe the Sterling is going to outperform the Buck—as many as 61% of open positions are presently long. As for the commands, a majority (59%) is to sell the Pound against the Greenback.

GBPUSD Pivot Levels Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 1.6232 1.6236 1.6179
Resistance 2 1.6179 1.6181 1.6142
Resistance 1 1.6135 1.6139 1.6119
Pivot 1.6082 1.6084 1.6082
Support 1 1.6039 1.6043 1.6045
Support 2 1.5986 1.5988 1.6022
Support 3 1.5942 1.5946 1.5986

USDJPY

Not only did the demand between 106 and 105.50 refuse to let USDJPY to retreat more, but it also initiated a rally that resulted in a breach of an important resistance at 106.70. Now, being that there are no significant levels nearby, the currency pair has a good opportunity to reach the supply area around 108. If this obstacle is overcome as well, there will be few doubts regarding the Dollar’s ability to get to the 2014’s high at 110.

Traders’ Sentiment
The traders are becoming sceptical regarding the ability of the U.S. Dollar to appreciate relative to the Japanese Yen—the percentage of short positions went up from 54 to 57% over the weekend, leaving the bulls in a more distinct minority with 43%.

USDJPY Pivot Levels Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 107.97 108.07 107.46
Resistance 2 107.46 107.51 107.15
Resistance 1 107.17 107.27 106.96
Pivot 106.65 106.7 106.65
Support 1 106.36 106.46 106.34
Support 2 105.84 105.89 106.15
Support 3 105.55 105.65 105.84

USDCHF

The first half of October was marked with poor performance of the US Dollar against the Franc, but now the currency pair managed to settle above 0.9450—a positive sign for the bulls. And even though the technical studies are not in favour of a surge, except for the weekly ones, USDCHF has the potential to jump up to 0.9550 in the nearest future. In the longer-term perspective the pair should challenge and defeat the resistance at 0.97.

Traders’ Sentiment
The gap between the bulls and the bears is in place—while the former take up 61% of the market, the latter—only 39%, meaning the sentiment is bullish at the moment. Concerning the orders, there are more sell ones in a 100-pip range, namely 76%.

USDCHF Pivot Levels Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 0.9558 0.9564 0.9517
Resistance 2 0.9517 0.952 0.949
Resistance 1 0.9489 0.9495 0.9474
Pivot 0.9447 0.945 0.9447
Support 1 0.9419 0.9425 0.942
Support 2 0.9378 0.9381 0.9404
Support 3 0.935 0.9356 0.9378