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Technical Analysis Oct.1st

by on October 1, 2014 7:51 am BST
 

EURUSD

The support at 1.2660 did not withstand the selling pressure yesterday, thus exposing the 2012 low at 1.2040, namely the main long-term target. However, in the short run we may expect some bullish activity at the weekly pivots—at 1.26 and 1.2510 respectively, but the overall outlook should stay bearish. Additional demand area is around 1.24, where the weekly S3 coincides with the monthly S2 level.

 

Traders’ Sentiment
Although the price of the Euro is becoming more attractive, we observe a decline in the percentage of long positions open in the market. Since the previous report 24 hours ago, their share has fallen from 60 to 57%.

 

EURUSD Pivot levels Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 1.2828 1.2824 1.2765
Resistance 2 1.2765 1.2763 1.2715
Resistance 1 1.2697 1.2693 1.2684
Pivot 1.2634 1.2632 1.2634
Support 1 1.2566 1.2562 1.2584
Support 2 1.2503 1.2501 1.2553
Support 3 1.2435 1.2431 1.2503

 

GBPUSD

GBPUSD keeps moving away from the three-month down-trend, which is expected to lead the pair to this year’s minimum. The immediate support is at 1.6162, represented by the weekly S1, but it is highly unlikely to influence the major bearish trend. The demand at 1.6050 on the other hand poses a real threat to the bears—potentially it can send the price to 1.63 and in case of success there—to a neck-line of a double bottom pattern at 1.65.

 

Traders’ Sentiment
The difference between the amounts of bullish and bearish market participants is almost the same as yesterday—18 percentage points in favour of the former. Meanwhile, the portion of sell orders plummeted from 66 to 50%.

 

GBPUSD Pivot levels Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 1.6398 1.6394 1.6342
Resistance 2 1.6342 1.634 1.6296
Resistance 1 1.6278 1.6274 1.6268
Pivot 1.6222 1.622 1.6222
Support 1 1.6157 1.6153 1.6176
Support 2 1.6102 1.61 1.6148
Support 3 1.6037 1.6033 1.6102

 

USDJPY

After finding firm support at 109 USDJPY was able to extend the gains to the weekly R1. The next milestone is the weekly R2 level at 110.34—the last hurdle before we see a test of the 2008 high at 110.72. In case of a strong sell-off from here, the pair may return to 108, where it will be expected to stabilise and resume the rally, since this area is created by the monthly PP, weekly S2 and a rising trend-line.

 

Traders’ Sentiment
Just as yesterday, the sentiment with respect to USDJPY remains distinctly bearish—as many as 70% of open positions are short. But the share of orders to purchase the U.S. Dollar at the same time increased from 64 to 69%.

 

USDJPY Pivot levels Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 110.6 110.66 110.22
Resistance 2 110.22 110.25 109.97
Resistance 1 109.94 110 109.81
Pivot 109.56 109.59 109.56
Support 1 109.27 109.33 109.31
Support 2 108.9 108.93 109.15
Support 3 108.61 108.67 108.9

 

USDCHF

USDCHF, after unimpressive performance on Monday, posted new highs yesterday, proving to retain bullish momentum. However, if the pair now retreats from 0.96 back to 0.9450, this will mean that the trading range is gradually narrowing and there is a significant probability of a break-out to the downside. This risk is also highlighted by the monthly technical indicators—five out of eight are pointing downwards.

 

Traders’ Sentiment
The traders seems to have been encouraged by USDCHF’s latest rally, being that the percentage of long positions went up from 58 to 62%. As for the orders 100 pips from the spot price, the number of buy ones plunged from 76 to 59%.

 

USDCHF Pivot levels Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 0.9695 0.9697 0.9646
Resistance 2 0.9646 0.9647 0.9608
Resistance 1 0.9597 0.9599 0.9585
Pivot 0.9548 0.9549 0.9548
Support 1 0.95 0.9502 0.9511
Support 2 0.9451 0.9452 0.9488
Support 3 0.9402 0.9404 0.9451