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Technical Analysis Oct.17th

by on October 17, 2014 7:25 am BST
 

EURUSD

As expected, the supply at 1.2850 (23.6% Fibo) was sufficient to prevent further appreciation of the Euro. However, even though afterwards EURUSD dipped down to 1.27, the subsequent buying pressure did not allow the pair to settle beneath the nearest supports. Accordingly, we are waiting for the price to settle under the 2013 low at 1.2740, which would confirm its intentions to move lower, namely down to this year’s minimum at 1.25.

Traders’ Sentiment
The difference between the longs (49%) and shorts (51%) remains negligible, as the market is still undecided with respect to the future of the Euro. As for the pending orders, there is a slight advantage of buy ones (58%) over the sell ones (42%).

EURUSD Pivot Levels Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 1.3004 1.3014 1.2924
Resistance 2 1.2924 1.2929 1.2871
Resistance 1 1.2864 1.2874 1.2838
Pivot 1.2785 1.279 1.2785
Support 1 1.2725 1.2735 1.2732
Support 2 1.2646 1.2651 1.2699
Support 3 1.2586 1.2596 1.2646

GBPUSD

Since there were no significant resistances nearby, GBPUSD managed to extend the rally from 1.5850. But now the currency pair is facing a serious obstacle represented by the weekly PP, 20-day SMA and four-month down-trend. Accordingly, the bears are now expected to regain control of the market and force the bulls to retreat some 250 pips before there can be another distinct upward correction.

Traders’ Sentiment
Traders’ sentiment currently favours the British Pound—60% of positions are long and 40% are short. As for the orders placed 100 pips from the spot—47% are to buy and 53% are to sell the Sterling against the Dollar.

GBPUSD Pivot Levels Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 1.6323 1.6347 1.6216
Resistance 2 1.6216 1.6228 1.6152
Resistance 1 1.6155 1.6179 1.6112
Pivot 1.6048 1.606 1.6048
Support 1 1.5987 1.6011 1.5984
Support 2 1.588 1.5892 1.5944
Support 3 1.5818 1.5842 1.588

USDJPY

While the 55-day SMA and 23.6% Fibo were unable to underpin the pair, a joint effort of the monthly S1 and 50% retracement kept the US Dollar from losing even more ground. Now USDJPY finds itself trapped in a range between 106.50 and 105.50, and a breach of any of there levels should imply continuation of the move in the same direction. However, the upper boundary is considered to be a more likely candidate for a breach—the risks are skewed to the upside.

Traders’ Sentiment
The sentiment of the SWFX market towards USDJPY remains neutral, as the gap between the long and short positions is only eight percentage points. Meanwhile, 46% of pending orders are to buy and 54% are to sell the Buck.

USDJPY Pivot Levels Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 107.78 107.92 107.14
Resistance 2 107.14 107.21 106.76
Resistance 1 106.8 106.94 106.53
Pivot 106.15 106.22 106.15
Support 1 105.81 105.95 105.77
Support 2 105.16 105.23 105.54
Support 3 104.82 104.96 105.16

USDCHF

USDCHF had to travel all the way to 0.9360 to find a significant support, which turned out to be the 55-day SMA and weekly S2. And while it may seem as a bullish sign, the upside potential of the pair in the nearest future may be limited by 0.9450, where the monthly pivot point merges with the weekly S1 and 23.6% Fibo. But even if the sell-off extends, the long-term outlook will be bullish as long as the major up-trend and 100-day SMA at 0.92 are intact.

Traders’ Sentiment
The bullish traders continue to take up a larger portion of the market right now—60%, even though the Greenback has been recently performing poorly. At the same time, there was a large drop in the share of sell orders—from 72 to 51%.

USDCHF Pivot Levels Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 0.9569 0.9565 0.953
Resistance 2 0.953 0.9528 0.9495
Resistance 1 0.9478 0.9474 0.9474
Pivot 0.9439 0.9437 0.9439
Support 1 0.9388 0.9384 0.9404
Support 2 0.9349 0.9347 0.9383
Support 3 0.9297 0.9293 0.9349