0 comments

Technical Analysis Oct.16th

by on October 16, 2014 7:56 am GMT
 

EURUSD

Yesterday’s fundamental events had a profound impact on the value of the US Dollar, forcing it to prolong the correction. And even though the formidable resistance at 1.28 has been broken as a result, the overall bias towards EURUSD is bearish. Right now the nearest supply area is at 1.2850 (23.6% Fibo), while the key level in the medium term is considered to be 1.31, a ceiling implied by the 38.2% Fibo and three-month down-trend.

Traders’ Sentiment
The increased volatility in the market did not disrupt the balance of power—49% of open positions are long and 51% are short. As for the orders, the share of the ones to buy the Euro increased from 41 to 54%.

EURUSD Pivot Levels Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 1.3191 1.3213 1.3039
Resistance 2 1.3039 1.305 1.2939
Resistance 1 1.2929 1.2951 1.2877
Pivot 1.2777 1.2788 1.2777
Support 1 1.2668 1.269 1.2677
Support 2 1.2515 1.2526 1.2615
Support 3 1.2406 1.2428 1.2515

GBPUSD

Not to the same extent as the Euro, but the Sterling also notably benefitted from weakness in the Greenback. GBPUSD bounced off the support at 1.5850 (2013 Q4 low and weekly S2) and managed to settle above the monthly S1. Consequently, we can expect continuation of the rally. However, the currency pair should stay below 1.61, where the weekly PP and 20-day SMA coincides with the four-month falling trend-line.

Traders’ Sentiment
The bullish participants are still in the lead with 60% of the SWFX market, leaving the bears in a distinct minority. Concerning the commands, 62% of them are set to sell the Pound against the US Dollar.

GBPUSD Pivot Levels Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 1.6274 1.628 1.6171
Resistance 2 1.6171 1.6174 1.6097
Resistance 1 1.6079 1.6085 1.6051
Pivot 1.5977 1.598 1.5977
Support 1 1.5885 1.5891 1.5903
Support 2 1.5783 1.5786 1.5857
Support 3 1.5691 1.5697 1.5783

USDJPY

Although USDJPY was initially estimated to seize declining near a cluster of supports at 106.50 (38.2% Fibo and 55-day SMA), it is already testing the monthly S1 50 pips to the South. Additional demand zone is supposed to be at 105.50, where the weekly S2 merges with the 50% Fibo. The base case scenario is the exchange rate staying above these levels and starting a recovery in the nearest future.

Traders’ Sentiment
Just as at the time of the previous report, there is no visible difference between the long (47%) and short (53%) positions. A similar situation is observed with the pending orders—55% are to buy and 45% are to sell the Buck.

USDJPY Pivot Levels Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 109.56 109.46 108.53
Resistance 2 108.53 108.48 107.65
Resistance 1 107.27 107.17 107.11
Pivot 106.23 106.18 106.23
Support 1 104.97 104.87 105.35
Support 2 103.93 103.88 104.81
Support 3 102.67 102.57 103.93

USDCHF

USDCHF violated two important supports, meaning there is now nothing between the spot price and the 55-day SMA at 0.9350. But there might be even a deeper sell-off, down to 0.93. There the pair will already face a combination of the monthly S1 and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the May-Oct rally. In case of an unlikely event of the price crossing this line as well, the bulls will be awaiting a rebound from 0.92 (50% Fibo, 100-day SMA and up-trend).

Traders’ Sentiment
Despite the Dollar losing a fair amount of its value the traders are optimistic—61% of open positions are long. Meanwhile, the percentage of sell orders placed 100 pips from the spot surged from 52 to 72%.

USDCHF Pivot Levels Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 0.9734 0.9718 0.9648
Resistance 2 0.9648 0.964 0.9571
Resistance 1 0.9532 0.9516 0.9523
Pivot 0.9446 0.9438 0.9446
Support 1 0.933 0.9314 0.9369
Support 2 0.9244 0.9236 0.9321
Support 3 0.9128 0.9112 0.9244