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Technical Analysis Oct.14th

by on October 14, 2014 7:25 am BST
 

EURUSD

Right now EURUSD is facing the resistance at 1.2740 represented by the 2013 low. If the supply here is insufficient to prevent further appreciation of the Euro, the next level to try to stop the pair will be 1.2780, where the weekly R1 merges with the monthly PP. But overall there is a substantial chance of a rally up to 1.31, where the six-month down-trend coincides with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the May-Oct sell-off.

 

Traders’ Sentiment
Although EURUSD jumped more than 80 pips yesterday, there was almost no reaction from the market—it is still neutral with 51% of traders being long and the remaining 49% being short. Concerning the orders, 51% are to buy and 49% are to sell the bloc’s currency.
EURUSD Pivot Levels Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 1.2917 1.2923 1.2842
Resistance 2 1.2842 1.2845 1.2791
Resistance 1 1.2782 1.2788 1.2759
Pivot 1.2708 1.2711 1.2708
Support 1 1.2648 1.2654 1.2657
Support 2 1.2574 1.2577 1.2625
Support 3 1.2514 1.252 1.2574

GBPUSD

Unlike EURUSD, which has recently broken the down-trend, GBPUSD will remain under selling pressure due to the resistance at 1.6168 being intact. But, unless there is a decisive move up, the outlook will be bearish with this year’s minimum at 1.5950 as the near-term objective. Beyond this point there are supposedly tough supports at 1.5850 (2013 Q4 low) and at 1.57 (monthly S2). Meanwhile, the 2013 low is still far away—at 1.48.

 

Traders’ Sentiment
While the distribution between the bullish and bearish market participants is more or less the same as 24 hours ago (57 and 43% respectively), the percentage of commands to sell the Sterling increased—from 53 to 64%.
GBPUSD Pivot Levels Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 1.6185 1.6177 1.6156
Resistance 2 1.6156 1.6152 1.6127
Resistance 1 1.611 1.6102 1.6109
Pivot 1.608 1.6076 1.608
Support 1 1.6034 1.6026 1.6051
Support 2 1.6005 1.6001 1.6033
Support 3 1.5959 1.5951 1.6005

USDJPY

The currency pair is finally approaching a dense demand area that has the potential to terminate the current downward correction and negate the recent losses. This support (around 106.50) is mainly created by the 55-day SMA and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the Jul-Sep wave. However, if the bulls are unsuccessful, there will be another opportunity to make a bet on the US Dollar between 105.89 (monthly S1) and 105.58 (50% Fibo).

 

Traders’ Sentiment
The gap between the amounts of long and short positions has narrowed since the previous report, as the portion of bulls has fallen from 56 to 53%. As for the orders 100 pips from the spot, 47% are to purchase and 53% are to sell the Pound.
USDJPY Pivot Levels Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 108.32 108.28 107.95
Resistance 2 107.95 107.93 107.63
Resistance 1 107.5 107.46 107.44
Pivot 107.13 107.11 107.13
Support 1 106.69 106.65 106.82
Support 2 106.31 106.29 106.63
Support 3 105.87 105.83 106.31

USDCHF

There is still a good possibility the bears will fail to push the price lower. The immediate support represented by the three-month rising trend-line is at 0.95, followed by a cluster at 0.9450, created by the weekly S1, monthly PP and 23.6% retracement of May-Oct up-move. But if the sellers overpower the buyers, the next chance to reverse the downward trend will only be given near 0.93, namely the current location of the 55-day SMA, 38.2% Fibo and monthly S1.

 

Traders’ Sentiment
There are considerably less longs in the SWFX market after poor performance of the US Dollar yesterday, which apparently discouraged many of the bulls. Nevertheless, they are still in a majority with a 57% share.
USDCHF Pivot Levels Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 0.9653 0.9647 0.961
Resistance 2 0.961 0.9607 0.9572
Resistance 1 0.9554 0.9548 0.9549
Pivot 0.9511 0.9508 0.9511
Support 1 0.9455 0.9449 0.9473
Support 2 0.9412 0.9409 0.945
Support 3 0.9357 0.9351 0.9412