Considering the trading early this morning, namely the EURUSD bouncing off the recently breached down-trend, the market intends to keep pushing the price of the Euro higher. However, in order to confirm its multi-week bullish intentions, the currency pair will have to close above the tough resistance represented by the monthly PP and weekly R1 at 1.28. In this case the 55-day SMA around 1.2960 will most likely become the next target.
There is still indecision in the market—54% of open positions are long and 46% are short. As for the orders placed 100 pips from the spot, the 20-percentage-point gap contracted to an insignificant value of 2.
|EURUSD Pivot Levels||Pivot||Woodie||Fibonacci|
Although the falling trend-line at 1.62 remains intact after an attack launched last week, the bulls are not giving in. Nevertheless, the base case scenario is still a sell-off down to 1.5950. But advancement beyond that point is going to be difficult, being that it is a cluster of supports consisting of the weekly and monthly S1, this year’s low and the lower Bollinger band. Meanwhile, the daily and weekly technical indicators are mostly bearish.
Right now there is a slight advantage of bulls over the bears—they constitute 56% of the market. Concerning the buy and sell commands, there is currently almost no difference between the former (47%) and the latter (53%).
|GBPUSD Pivot Levels||Pivot||Woodie||Fibonacci|
USDJPY keeps grinding lower, as there are no significant concentrations of demand nearby. The closest price level that may act as a more or less reliable floor is at 106.50, where the 55-day SMA merges with the weekly S1. A little lower, namely at 105.89/58, there is the weekly S2 together with the monthly S1. In the long-term perspective, unless the support at 103 is broken, the outlook will stay distinctly bullish.
Despite the percentage of short positions falling, they are still in majority with 56% of the market (59% last Friday). In the meantime, there is no real difference between the numbers of orders placed to buy (53%) and to sell (47%) the Greenback.
|USDJPY Pivot Levels||Pivot||Woodie||Fibonacci|
For the time being USDCHF is kept afloat by the three-month rising trend-line at 0.9530. If this support is breached, the rate will most likely decline to 0.9450, where the weekly S1 coincides with the monthly PP and 2013 Sep high. But if the daily studies are correct and the US Dollar closes higher, we should soon see a re-test of the main medium-term resistance created by the weekly and monthly R1 levels at 0.97.
The distribution between the bullish and bearish market participants is completely unchanged—62% expect the Dollar to appreciate and 38% believe the Franc is going to outperform. But the share of buy orders plunged from 68 to 50% compared to the prior report.
|USDCHF Pivot Levels||Pivot||Woodie||Fibonacci|