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Technical Analysis Oct.13th

by on October 13, 2014 7:29 am GMT
 

EURUSD

Considering the trading early this morning, namely the EURUSD bouncing off the recently breached down-trend, the market intends to keep pushing the price of the Euro higher. However, in order to confirm its multi-week bullish intentions, the currency pair will have to close above the tough resistance represented by the monthly PP and weekly R1 at 1.28. In this case the 55-day SMA around 1.2960 will most likely become the next target.

Traders’ Sentiment
There is still indecision in the market—54% of open positions are long and 46% are short. As for the orders placed 100 pips from the spot, the 20-percentage-point gap contracted to an insignificant value of 2.

EURUSD Pivot Levels Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 1.2803 1.2793 1.276
Resistance 2 1.276 1.2755 1.2717
Resistance 1 1.2693 1.2683 1.2691
Pivot 1.2649 1.2644 1.2649
Support 1 1.2582 1.2572 1.2607
Support 2 1.2538 1.2533 1.2581
Support 3 1.2471 1.2461 1.2538

GBPUSD

Although the falling trend-line at 1.62 remains intact after an attack launched last week, the bulls are not giving in. Nevertheless, the base case scenario is still a sell-off down to 1.5950. But advancement beyond that point is going to be difficult, being that it is a cluster of supports consisting of the weekly and monthly S1, this year’s low and the lower Bollinger band. Meanwhile, the daily and weekly technical indicators are mostly bearish.

Traders’ Sentiment
Right now there is a slight advantage of bulls over the bears—they constitute 56% of the market. Concerning the buy and sell commands, there is currently almost no difference between the former (47%) and the latter (53%).

GBPUSD Pivot Levels Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 1.6262 1.6262 1.6199
Resistance 2 1.6199 1.6199 1.615
Resistance 1 1.6136 1.6136 1.612
Pivot 1.6072 1.6072 1.6072
Support 1 1.6009 1.6009 1.6024
Support 2 1.5945 1.5945 1.5994
Support 3 1.5883 1.5883 1.5945

USDJPY

USDJPY keeps grinding lower, as there are no significant concentrations of demand nearby. The closest price level that may act as a more or less reliable floor is at 106.50, where the 55-day SMA merges with the weekly S1. A little lower, namely at 105.89/58, there is the weekly S2 together with the monthly S1. In the long-term perspective, unless the support at 103 is broken, the outlook will stay distinctly bullish.

Traders’ Sentiment
Despite the percentage of short positions falling, they are still in majority with 56% of the market (59% last Friday). In the meantime, there is no real difference between the numbers of orders placed to buy (53%) and to sell (47%) the Greenback.

USDJPY Pivot Levels Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 108.53 108.45 108.34
Resistance 2 108.34 108.3 108.14
Resistance 1 108 107.92 108.01
Pivot 107.81 107.77 107.81
Support 1 107.47 107.39 107.61
Support 2 107.28 107.24 107.48
Support 3 106.93 106.85 107.28

USDCHF

For the time being USDCHF is kept afloat by the three-month rising trend-line at 0.9530. If this support is breached, the rate will most likely decline to 0.9450, where the weekly S1 coincides with the monthly PP and 2013 Sep high. But if the daily studies are correct and the US Dollar closes higher, we should soon see a re-test of the main medium-term resistance created by the weekly and monthly R1 levels at 0.97.

Traders’ Sentiment
The distribution between the bullish and bearish market participants is completely unchanged—62% expect the Dollar to appreciate and 38% believe the Franc is going to outperform. But the share of buy orders plunged from 68 to 50% compared to the prior report.

 USDCHF Pivot Levels Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 0.9661 0.9663 0.9627
Resistance 2 0.9627 0.9628 0.9602
Resistance 1 0.9596 0.9598 0.9586
Pivot 0.9561 0.9562 0.9561
Support 1 0.953 0.9532 0.9536
Support 2 0.9495 0.9496 0.952
Support 3 0.9464 0.9466 0.9495