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Technical Analysis Oct.10th

by on October 10, 2014 8:11 am BST
 

EURUSD

Yesterday the market confirmed presence of concentrated supply at 1.28, where the weekly R2 merges with the monthly pivot point, by retreating to 1.2660. But if the bulls keep pushing the price higher nonetheless, the next significant resistance will only be at 1.30—the current location of the monthly R1 and 55-day SMA. A little further to the north, namely at 1.31, is a two-month down-trend, which is the key to the medium-term outlook.

Traders’ Sentiment
Neither poor nor good performance of the Euro this week had any effect on the attitude of the market toward the currency. The gap between the amounts of long (53%) and short (47%) positions remains negligible.

EURUSD Pivot Levels Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 1.2891 1.2879 1.2841
Resistance 2 1.2841 1.2835 1.2793
Resistance 1 1.2764 1.2752 1.2763
Pivot 1.2714 1.2708 1.2714
Support 1 1.2637 1.2625 1.2665
Support 2 1.2587 1.2581 1.2635
Support 3 1.2509 1.2497 1.2587

GBPUSD

The Sterling-bulls are not as sanguine as earlier this week after encountering the three-month falling resistance line at 1.62. If this level holds today as well, there will be few doubts of GBPUSD returning back to 1.5950 in the nearest future. Should the bearish technical indicators turn out to be incorrect, and the Pound appreciates, there is another cluster at 1.64 that will attempt to prevent farther advancement of the rate.

Traders’ Sentiment
Similarly to the situation 24 hours ago, there is no significant difference between the numbers of bulls (55%) and bears (45%). But the share of the sell orders has fallen since the previous report from 60 to 48%.

GBPUSD Pivot Levels Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 1.6318 1.6304 1.6272
Resistance 2 1.6272 1.6265 1.6226
Resistance 1 1.6196 1.6182 1.6197
Pivot 1.615 1.6143 1.615
Support 1 1.6074 1.606 1.6103
Support 2 1.6028 1.6021 1.6074
Support 3 1.5951 1.5937 1.6028

USDJPY

Although at first it seemed that 108 will now represent the lower boundary of the trading range for USDJPY, the currency pair dipped below this level, meaning the correction is likely to drag on. The immediate support is at 107.22, but neither this level nor the weekly S3 at 106.43 are deemed able to stop the decline. The demand at 106, on the other hand, has a much higher chance of success—it is formed by the monthly S1 and 55-day SMA.

Traders’ Sentiment
The majority of the SWFX market participants remain confident the US Dollar is going to weaken against the Japanese Yen—41% are holding long positions and 59% are holding short ones. But the share of buy orders contracted from 58 to 52%.

USDJPY Pivot Levels Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 109.04 109.02 108.68
Resistance 2 108.68 108.67 108.38
Resistance 1 108.25 108.23 108.19
Pivot 107.89 107.88 107.89
Support 1 107.46 107.44 107.59
Support 2 107.1 107.09 107.4
Support 3 106.68 106.66 107.1

USDCHF

As expected, the up-trend at 0.95 managed to stay intact, as the monthly PP at 0.9450 provided aid in negating this week’s downward momentum. As a result, USDCHF is now trading at the weekly S1 level. However, the downside risks are still elevated. In case the bulls lose this battle and the price slides through 0.9450, the U.S. Dollar will have plenty of reasons to visit the monthly S1 and 55-day SMA at 0.93.

Traders’ Sentiment
Most of the market participants are optimistic regarding the prospects of USDCHF—62% are planning to profit from Greenback’s appreciation. Meanwhile, there are more traders willing to purchase the Buck—68% (51% yesterday).

 USDCHF Pivot Levels Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 0.9667 0.9677 0.9613
Resistance 2 0.9613 0.9618 0.9579
Resistance 1 0.9577 0.9587 0.9557
Pivot 0.9523 0.9528 0.9523
Support 1 0.9487 0.9497 0.9489
Support 2 0.9433 0.9438 0.9467
Support 3 0.9397 0.9407 0.9433