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Technical Analysis Nov.4th

by on November 4, 2014 7:47 am BST
 

EURUSD

The demand at 1.25 continues to underpin the pair, meaning we should not rule out a rally emerging from here. In this case the immediate obstacle will be represented by the monthly pivot point at 1.2630, which is followed by 2013 low and 55-day SMA at 1.2750. However, the main medium-term supply area is at 1.2850, namely the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the May-October sell-off, and the bias will be bearish as long as the Euro is below it.

 

Traders’ Sentiment
Apparently, some of the traders lost their optimism with respect to the Euro even though its value did not change significantly—the share of long positions is five percentage points lower compared to 58% recorded yesterday.

 

EURUSD Pivot Levels Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 1.2594 1.26 1.2553
Resistance 2 1.2553 1.2556 1.2525
Resistance 1 1.2522 1.2528 1.2508
Pivot 1.2481 1.2484 1.2481
Support 1 1.2451 1.2457 1.2454
Support 2 1.2409 1.2412 1.2437
Support 3 1.2379 1.2385 1.2409

 

GBPUSD

Since GBPUSD has already closed the bearish gap and the pair is fluctuating near the resistance at 1.6040, the Sterling is unlikely to add to the gains from 1.5950. The four-month down-trend coupled with the monthly PP are expected to act as a ceiling and send the price towards the demand at 1.5870/50. In order for the negative outlook to be confirmed, this zone has to be broken. Then there will be a good chance of the Pound sliding to the 2013 low at 1.48.

 

Traders’ Sentiment
Noticeably less people than 24 hours ago are bullish towards the British Pound. The portion of long positions contracted from 65 to 58%. Meanwhile, the distribution between the buy (48%) and sell (52%) orders remains stable.

 

GBPUSD Pivot Levels Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 1.6117 1.6117 1.607
Resistance 2 1.607 1.607 1.6033
Resistance 1 1.6022 1.6022 1.601
Pivot 1.5974 1.5974 1.5974
Support 1 1.5926 1.5926 1.5938
Support 2 1.5879 1.5879 1.5915
Support 3 1.5831 1.5831 1.5879

 

USDJPY

USD/JPY refused to fill the gap and kept on gaining ground, as was suggested by the near-term technical indicators. As a result, the pair needs to make one last push to reach an important milestone at 114.70—the 2007 Dec high and monthly R1. It is reasonable to expect some profit-taking in this area, but the US Dollar should preserve the overall upward momentum and keep moving towards its main target—the 2007 high at 124.

 

Traders’ Sentiment
There has been a major repositioning of the SWFX market participants. While yesterday as many as 70% of all traders were bearish, today only 54% expect the Dollar to underperform relative to the Yen.

 

USDJPY Pivot Levels Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 116.08 116.18 115.15
Resistance 2 115.15 115.2 114.52
Resistance 1 114.43 114.53 114.13
Pivot 113.5 113.55 113.5
Support 1 112.79 112.89 112.87
Support 2 111.86 111.91 112.48
Support 3 111.14 111.24 111.86

 

USDCHF

USDCHF is already starting to feel the selling pressure, as it has just touched this year’s high at 0.97. The nearest significant support area is at 0.9580/60, the current location of the weekly and monthly pivot points. If the demand there is insufficient to halt the decline, the US Dollar will likely retreat further, down to 0.9470/50, where the 55-day SMA merges with the 23.6% retracement of the May-October up-move.

 

Traders’ Sentiment
The market stays neutral with respect to USDCHF—53% of open positions are long and the remaining 47% are short. As for the pending orders 50 pips from the spot, most (64%) of them are to sell the Buck against the Franc.

 

USDCHF Pivot Levels Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 0.9738 0.9734 0.9714
Resistance 2 0.9714 0.9712 0.9693
Resistance 1 0.9681 0.9677 0.9679
Pivot 0.9658 0.9656 0.9658
Support 1 0.9625 0.9621 0.9637
Support 2 0.9602 0.96 0.9623
Support 3 0.9569 0.9565 0.9602