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Technical Analysis Nov.3rd

by on November 3, 2014 5:00 am GMT
 

EURUSD

EURUSD has already managed to update this year’s minimum today, but for now the support at 1.25 can still be considered to be intact. However, if the currency pair closes beneath this mark today, there will be few doubts the sell-off is going to extend further, namely down to 1.24. On the other hand, in case the October low withstands the selling pressure, the Euro will have a good opportunity to return to 1.2740.

Traders’ Sentiment
While the distribution between the longs (58%) and the shorts (42%) has been more or less stable, the percentage of commands to purchase the single currency against the Buck has soared from 31 to 69% since the previous report on Friday.

EURUSD Pivot Levels Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 1.2715 1.2707 1.2662
Resistance 2 1.2662 1.2658 1.2615
Resistance 1 1.2592 1.2584 1.2586
Pivot 1.2539 1.2535 1.2539
Support 1 1.2469 1.2461 1.2492
Support 2 1.2416 1.2412 1.2463
Support 3 1.2346 1.2338 1.2416

GBPUSD

Given the density of supply around 1.6050, the bias is to the downside. Apart from the multi-month down-trend, this resistance is created by the monthly pivot point and several other studies. Nevertheless, the bearish momentum may find it difficult to push the Sterling below the support at 1.5850, where the 2013 Q4 low merges with this year’s trough and monthly S1. Accordingly, we can expect GBPUSD to remain range-bound in the coming days.

Traders’ Sentiment
The SWFX market preserves a positive attitude with respect to the British Pound—as many as 65% of open positions are long. As for the orders, there is no real difference between the buy (47%) and sell (53%) ones.

GBPUSD Pivot Levels Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 1.609 1.6094 1.605
Resistance 2 1.605 1.6052 1.6024
Resistance 1 1.6021 1.6025 1.6008
Pivot 1.5981 1.5983 1.5981
Support 1 1.5951 1.5955 1.5954
Support 2 1.5912 1.5914 1.5938
Support 3 1.5882 1.5886 1.5912

USDJPY

Since USDJPY opened this week with an upside gap, there is likely to be a correction at least to 112, from where the pair will be expected to resume the rally. Subsequently, considering there are no significant resistances nearby, the US Dollar should reach 115 with relative ease. However, the currency may come under strong selling pressure here, as this supply area is represented by the 2007 Dec high and monthly R1.

Traders’ Sentiment
An overwhelming majority of the SWFX market participants believes the Greenback has already reached the top and the currency is therefore bound to decline versus the Japanese Yen—at the moment 70% of positions are short.

USDJPY Pivot Levels Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 116.72 117.22 114.6
Resistance 2 114.6 114.85 113.35
Resistance 1 113.44 113.94 112.57
Pivot 111.32 111.57 111.32
Support 1 110.17 110.67 110.07
Support 2 108.04 108.29 109.29
Support 3 106.89 107.39 108.04

USDCHF

USDCHF has finally returned to this year’s main resistance, which in turn is the key to 2013’s high at 0.9840. Being that this level has proven to be respected by the market, we should not rule out a pull-back to 0.9600/0.9550 before 0.97 finally gives in. At the same time, if neither the weekly nor the monthly pivot points provide sufficient demand, the bears may throw the pair back to 0.9460 (55-day SMA and 23.6% Fibo).

Traders’ Sentiment
For the time being the traders are unable to reach a consensus—51% of positions are long and 49% are short, meaning the overall sentiment is neutral. A similar picture is observed with the pending orders—46% to buy and 54% to sell the Buck.

USDCHF Pivot Levels Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 0.9772 0.9776 0.9717
Resistance 2 0.9717 0.9719 0.9678
Resistance 1 0.967 0.9674 0.9654
Pivot 0.9615 0.9617 0.9615
Support 1 0.9568 0.9572 0.9576
Support 2 0.9513 0.9515 0.9552
Support 3 0.9466 0.947 0.9513