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Technical Analysis Nov.25th

by on November 25, 2014 7:19 am BST
 

EURUSD

As it turned out, the bears were not ready to break the defense at 1.2360 yesterday, and EURUSD went up by 60 pips as a result. However, the upside potential is limited—there is a down-trend at 1.2525. Accordingly, we may expect elevated volatility in the nearest future, when one of these levels is breached. Considering the daily and weekly technical indicators, the risks are skewed to the downside.

 

Traders’ Sentiment
The gap between the bullish and bearish market participants remains insignificant—only six percentage points, meaning the sentiment of the SWFX market towards the European currency is still neutral.

 

EURUSD Pivot Levels Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 1.2535 1.2543 1.249
Resistance 2 1.249 1.2494 1.2462
Resistance 1 1.2462 1.247 1.2445
Pivot 1.2417 1.2421 1.2417
Support 1 1.2389 1.2397 1.2389
Support 2 1.2344 1.2348 1.2372
Support 3 1.2316 1.2324 1.2344

 

GBPUSD

GBPUSD remains range-bound, with the ceiling and the floor represented by 1.57 and 1.56, respectively. In case the resistance gives in, the Sterling will be expected to rise up to the 2013 Q4 low at 1.5850, where it coincides with the monthly S1 and a five-month down-trend line. Conversely, should the bears manage to gain the upper hand over the demand at 1.56, this will expose 1.5450, namely the monthly S3 level.

 

Traders’ Sentiment
The advantage of the longs over the shorts has increased since the previous report—the share of the bulls advanced from 56 to 59%. In the meantime, the portion of the orders to sell the Pound also grew, but from 58 to 61%.

 

GBPUSD Pivot Levels Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 1.5818 1.5826 1.5766
Resistance 2 1.5766 1.577 1.5733
Resistance 1 1.5732 1.574 1.5713
Pivot 1.568 1.5684 1.568
Support 1 1.5646 1.5654 1.5647
Support 2 1.5594 1.5598 1.5627
Support 3 1.5559 1.5567 1.5594

 

USDJPY

The currency pair is forming a base at 118 at the moment, which is likely to act as a significant support in the future. And once the rate steps over the resistance at 119, as implied by the daily and weekly technical studies, USDJPY will most likely pursue the 2007 high at 124. But if the US Dollar suddenly comes under downward pressure and closes beneath 117.30, the selling can persist until the 23.6% retracement of Jul-Nov rally at 115.

 

Traders’ Sentiment
The USDJPY continues to be characterized by indecision of traders—52% believe the US Dollar is going to appreciate, and 48% expect the Yen to outperform. As for the orders, 61% of them are placed to purchase the Buck.

 

USDJPY Pivot Levels Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 119.81 119.95 119.19
Resistance 2 119.19 119.26 118.81
Resistance 1 118.82 118.96 118.58
Pivot 118.2 118.27 118.2
Support 1 117.83 117.97 117.82
Support 2 117.21 117.28 117.59
Support 3 116.84 116.98 117.21

USDCHF

Since USDCHF has just closed the bullish gap by falling to the support at 0.9650, it may attempt to launch yet another attack on the resistance at 0.9740. But if the weekly PP together with the 20-day SMA fails to provide sufficient demand, the pair may return to 0.9550, where it will be backed up by the monthly pivot point and 55-day SMA. Meanwhile, violation of 0.9740 implies a surge to the 2013 high at 0.9840.

Traders’ Sentiment
The current distribution between the long and short positions is exactly the same as yesterday—65 to 35%, respectively. Concerning the pending orders, the share of the buy ones set 100 pips from the spot jumped from 64 to 71%.

USDCHF Pivot Levels Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 0.9765 0.9757 0.9743
Resistance 2 0.9743 0.9739 0.9721
Resistance 1 0.9707 0.9699 0.9707
Pivot 0.9685 0.9681 0.9685
Support 1 0.965 0.9642 0.9663
Support 2 0.9627 0.9623 0.9649
Support 3 0.9592 0.9584 0.9627