0 comments

Technical Analysis Nov.24th

by on November 24, 2014 8:01 am BST
 

EURUSD

Since EURUSD confronted the falling resistance line last week and failed to violate it, the overall downward trend should remain intact. However, in order to confirm the long-term bearish intentions, the currency pair must push through the demand at 1.2360, represented by the monthly S1 and, even more importantly, this year’s minimum. Once this support is broken, the 2012 low at 1.2040 will highly likely become the next target.

Traders’ Sentiment
Although the share of long positions has increased over the weekend, the difference between the numbers of the bulls and bears remains insignificant—only eight percentage points in favor of the former.

EURUSD Pivot Levels Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 1.2704 1.2676 1.2636
Resistance 2 1.2636 1.2622 1.2562
Resistance 1 1.2511 1.2483 1.2517
Pivot 1.2443 1.2429 1.2443
Support 1 1.2318 1.229 1.2369
Support 2 1.225 1.2236 1.2324
Support 3 1.2125 1.2097 1.225

GBPUSD

The Cable keeps trading around its monthly S2 level, being limited by the resistance at 1.57 from the upside and the support at 1.56 from the downside. According to the near-term indicators, the bearish risks prevail and GBPUSD should update this year’s low; on the other hand, the monthly studies are mostly bullish, suggesting the key resistance at 1.5850 may soon give in. Either way, a breach of any of these levels is going to define mid-term Pound trend.

Traders’ Sentiment
The sentiment towards the Sterling is slightly more bullish than bearish, being that 56% of open positions are long. As for the pending orders, 58% of commands placed 100 pips around the spot are to sell the currency against the Greenback.

GBPUSD Pivot Levels Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 1.5786 1.5778 1.5749
Resistance 2 1.5749 1.5745 1.5716
Resistance 1 1.5698 1.569 1.5695
Pivot 1.5662 1.5658 1.5662
Support 1 1.5611 1.5603 1.5629
Support 2 1.5575 1.5571 1.5608
Support 3 1.5523 1.5515 1.5575

USDJPY

USDJPY is currently taking a break after a precipitous rally commenced in mid-October. And even though the one-and-a-half-month advance seems overstretched, the bulls do not let the Dollar to undergo a correction—the pair is currently well-supported by a combination of the weekly PP and monthly R2 at 117.30. Moreover, the technical indicators are pointing upwards, meaning the 2007 Oct high is soon to resign as a resistance level.

Traders’ Sentiment
The SWFX market participants stay undecided with respect to USDJPY’s prospects—53% of traders expect the pair to move further north, and 47% of them reckon the Buck has climbed too far and must retreat.

USDJPY Pivot Levels Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 119.16 119.14 118.71
Resistance 2 118.71 118.7 118.36
Resistance 1 118.25 118.23 118.15
Pivot 117.8 117.79 117.8
Support 1 117.33 117.31 117.45
Support 2 116.89 116.88 117.24
Support 3 116.42 116.4 116.89

USDCHF

Having established a solid support at 0.9550, USDCHF surged up to 0.9750, where the monthly R1 merges with this year’s highest trading level. Eventually, the obstacle should be overcome, and this will pave the way for a jump to the 2013 high at 0.8840, which is standing near the monthly R2 and a multi-month up-trend (connects Aug 17 low and Nov 6 high). If the bullish carry on pushing further, the next destination will be the 2012 peak at 0.9970.

Traders’ Sentiment
Since Friday the percentage of Dollar-optimists only grew—now they take up 65% of the market (63% on Friday). At the same time, a notable majority (64%) of the orders is set to purchase the Greenback against the Franc.

USDCHF Pivot Levels Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 0.9893 0.9913 0.9801
Resistance 2 0.9801 0.9811 0.9745
Resistance 1 0.9747 0.9767 0.9711
Pivot 0.9655 0.9665 0.9655
Support 1 0.9601 0.9621 0.9599
Support 2 0.9509 0.9519 0.9565
Support 3 0.9455 0.9475 0.9509