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Technical Analysis Nov.19th

by on November 19, 2014 6:40 am BST
 

EURUSD

The Euro managed to pare Monday’s losses yesterday after rebounding from the weekly S1 at 1.2428. Nevertheless, the near-term outlook remains bearish—the four-month down-trend is still intact. Even if it is breached, there are resistances at 1.264 and 1.274 that are highly unlikely to allow EURUSD to sustain a recovery for long. Only violation of the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of May-Nov sell-off at 1.30 will be considered long-term bullish.

Traders’ Sentiment
EURUSD continues to be characterized by indecision in the market—the bulls (51%) and the bears (49%) are equally strong. As for the orders, the share of the buy ones is growing and it already amounts to 59%.

EURUSD Pivot Levels Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 1.2665 1.2677 1.2605
Resistance 2 1.2605 1.2611 1.2568
Resistance 1 1.2569 1.2581 1.2546
Pivot 1.2509 1.2515 1.2509
Support 1 1.2473 1.2485 1.2472
Support 2 1.2413 1.2419 1.245
Support 3 1.2377 1.2389 1.2413

GBPUSD

The Cable keeps grinding lower, while the monthly S2 at 1.5662 and 2014 low at 1.5592 now represent the limits of the trading range. In case the former level is broken, the bullish momentum will likely fade away as soon as the pair reaches the resistance at 1.5850, where the five-month down-trend coincides with the monthly S1 and 2013 Q4 low. Conversely, if the Pound posts a new minimum, it will imply continuation of the decline towards the monthly S3.

Traders’ Sentiment
Just like 24 hours ago, 56% of open positions are long, meaning there are slightly more Sterling-optimists than pessimists. The distribution between the pending orders also did not change—48% to buy and 52% to sell.

GBPUSD Pivot Levels Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 1.5723 1.5715 1.5701
Resistance 2 1.5701 1.5697 1.5678
Resistance 1 1.5664 1.5656 1.5664
Pivot 1.5642 1.5638 1.5642
Support 1 1.5606 1.5598 1.562
Support 2 1.5583 1.5579 1.5606
Support 3 1.5547 1.5539 1.5583

USDJPY

As it turned out, there was no need for a pronounced bearish correction in order for USDJPY to re-challenge a major resistance at 117. However, this level is still intact, meaning there is a chance the US Dollar will fail to visit the 2007 Oct high before the end of this week. In such a case the demand at 114.80, implied be the 2007 Dec high and monthly R1, will be expected to act as a floor and prevent additional losses.

Traders’ Sentiment
The sentiment of the SWFX market remains neutral towards USDJPY, as the difference between the longs and shorts is minimal—only two percentage points. Meanwhile, the portion of sell orders surged from 45 to 59%.

USDJPY Pivot Levels Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 117.88 117.94 117.46
Resistance 2 117.46 117.49 117.19
Resistance 1 117.17 117.23 117.02
Pivot 116.75 116.78 116.75
Support 1 116.45 116.51 116.48
Support 2 116.04 116.07 116.31
Support 3 115.74 115.8 116.04

USDCHF

The Greenback did not succeed at overcoming the selling pressure yesterday, as a result of which the currency retreated back to 0.9550. But the dip should not extend further—the downside is limited by the monthly pivot point in conjunction with the 55-day SMA. If they fail, there is another formidable support at 0.95, where the weekly S2 merges with the 23.6% retracement of the May-Nov advancement.

Traders’ Sentiment
The market participants did not change their bullish attitude towards USDCHF—66% of positions are long. But the percentage of the orders to acquire the Buck went noticeably up, namely from 52 to 61%.

USDCHF Pivot Levels Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 0.9707 0.9697 0.9678
Resistance 2 0.9678 0.9673 0.9649
Resistance 1 0.9632 0.9622 0.9632
Pivot 0.9603 0.9598 0.9603
Support 1 0.9557 0.9547 0.9574
Support 2 0.9528 0.9523 0.9557
Support 3 0.9482 0.9472 0.9528