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Technical Analysis Nov.18th

by on November 18, 2014 7:04 am BST
 

EURUSD

Although EURUSD appeared to be in a good position to advance towards the monthly pivot point after finding the support at 1.2360 (monthly S1), the bears at 1.2580 forced the pair to retreat. Yesterday’s sell-off also showed the market started to respect a new downward-sloping resistance line that may be drawn through the highs on Aug 15 and Nov 17. Consequently, the Euro is expected to return to this year’s low.


Traders’ Sentiment
The distribution between the longs and shorts is exactly the same as yesterday—53 and 47%, respectively. Meanwhile, the share of the buy orders slightly but increased from 53 to 56%, meaning the pair may be approaching a demand area.


EURUSD Pivot Levels Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 1.267 1.265 1.2624
Resistance 2 1.2624 1.2614 1.2573
Resistance 1 1.2537 1.2517 1.2541
Pivot 1.249 1.248 1.249
Support 1 1.2403 1.2383 1.2439
Support 2 1.2356 1.2346 1.2407
Support 3 1.2269 1.2249 1.2356


GBPUSD

The downward pressure persists, as the bulls failed to push the price away from 1.56. If this support is broken, GBPUSD will likely reach the monthly S3 at 1.5450—one of the few levels separating the spot from 1.48, namely the 2013 low that is considered to be the long-term target. However, the monthly technical indicators continue to oppose the bearish scenario—most of them are presently giving ‘buy’ signals.


Traders’ Sentiment
As the Sterling depreciates, the bulls gained a small advantage over the bears—the percentage of long positions in the market went up to 56%. But there is still no significant difference between the numbers of buy (48%) and sell orders (52%).


GBPUSD Pivot Levels Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 1.5824 1.5812 1.578
Resistance 2 1.578 1.5774 1.5736
Resistance 1 1.5709 1.5697 1.5708
Pivot 1.5664 1.5658 1.5664
Support 1 1.5593 1.5581 1.562
Support 2 1.5548 1.5542 1.5592
Support 3 1.5477 1.5465 1.5548


USDJPY

For the time being the resistance at 117 is standing its ground, regardless of the strong upward momentum of USD/JPY observed since mid-October. Nevertheless, as suggested by the daily and weekly studies, the bulls should eventually succeed. The 2007 Oct high at 118 will then become the new objective, followed by the 2007 high at 124, though the US Dollar will have to stay above 114.70 to prevent extension of a possible correction.


Traders’ Sentiment
At the moment the USDJPY market is in perfect balance, as the shares of bullish and bearish traders are equal. As for the pending orders, 55% are to acquire and 45% are to sell the Buck against the Japanese Yen.


USDJPY Pivot Levels Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 118.61 118.77 117.75
Resistance 2 117.75 117.83 117.2
Resistance 1 117.19 117.35 116.86
Pivot 116.32 116.4 116.32
Support 1 115.76 115.92 115.78
Support 2 114.9 114.98 115.44
Support 3 114.34 114.5 114.9


USDCHF

USD/CHF confirmed presence of the strong demand around 0.9550 yesterday. There the currency pair encountered the monthly pivot point that coincides with the weekly S1 and 55-day SMA and surged more than 90 pips as a result. Now, if the Greenback manages to gain a foothold above the weekly PP at 0.9620, the currency will probably move higher, in the direction of the major resistance at 0.9750 (2014 high, weekly R2 and monthly R1).


Traders’ Sentiment
The sentiment of the SWFX market remains heavily in favour of the Dollar—as many as 66% of all traders believe the US currency will keep gaining ground. At the same time, the difference between the buy and sell orders is negligible—only four percentage points.


USDCHF Pivot Levels Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 0.9786 0.9802 0.972
Resistance 2 0.972 0.9728 0.9681
Resistance 1 0.9684 0.97 0.9657
Pivot 0.9618 0.9626 0.9618
Support 1 0.9582 0.9598 0.9579
Support 2 0.9516 0.9524 0.9555
Support 3 0.948 0.9496 0.9516