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Technical Analysis Nov.10th

by on November 10, 2014 7:39 am BST
 

EURUSD

The currency pair opened today with an upward gap after finding strong support at 1.2376 last week, represented by the weekly and monthly S1 levels. However, the upside may be limited by the resistance at 1.25, where the early October low coincides with the weekly pivot point. Yet another argument in favour of short-term Euro weakness is the technical indicators that are mostly bearish on the daily and weekly time-frames.

Traders’ Sentiment
The bulls have lost their advantage over the bears. The share of the former (53%) is now only six percentage points larger than the share of the latter (47%). A similar picture is observed with the orders—52% to buy and 48% to sell the common currency.

EURUSD Pivot Levels Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 1.2607 1.2619 1.2538
Resistance 2 1.2538 1.2544 1.2496
Resistance 1 1.2496 1.2508 1.247
Pivot 1.2427 1.2433 1.2427
Support 1 1.2385 1.2397 1.2384
Support 2 1.2316 1.2322 1.2358
Support 3 1.2273 1.2285 1.2316

GBPUSD

The Sterling is currently negating Thursday’s losses, as the currency gained bullish momentum due to a recent test of the dense demand area near 1.5850 (monthly S1, Oct minimum and 2013 Q4 low). But the rally is unlikely to extend more than 150 pips from today’s open price, since there is a cluster of resistances around 1.60, created by the monthly PP, weekly R1 and, most importantly, by the four-month down-trend.

Traders’ Sentiment
The distribution between the bullish and bearish market participants keeps leveling off. During the last five days the percentage of the long positions has decreased from 65 to 57%. At the same time, a substantial majority of the orders is to sell the Pound—76% of them.

GBPUSD Pivot Levels Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 1.6 1.601 1.5943
Resistance 2 1.5943 1.5948 1.5906
Resistance 1 1.5904 1.5914 1.5884
Pivot 1.5847 1.5852 1.5847
Support 1 1.5808 1.5818 1.581
Support 2 1.5751 1.5756 1.5788
Support 3 1.5712 1.5722 1.5751

USDJPY

USDJPY failed to gain a solid foothold above the monthly R1 and retreated behind 114.70. Still, the overall bias is bullish, being that the majority of the technical studies points upwards, and any dips above 110 are viewed as correctional. The immediate support is at 114.22, but the bears are likely to keep selling at least until the rate reaches the next weekly pivot point at 112.87. But once the pair is above 115, the next target will be the monthly R2 at 117.

Traders’ Sentiment
Though the sentiment is not as bearish as five days ago, when 70% of positions were short, the bears are nonetheless in a majority with 56% of the market. As for the orders, there is presently no significant difference between the buy (55%) and sell (45%) ones.

USDJPY Pivot Levels Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 116.67 116.55 116.12
Resistance 2 116.12 116.06 115.62
Resistance 1 115.35 115.23 115.3
Pivot 114.8 114.74 114.8
Support 1 114.03 113.91 114.3
Support 2 113.48 113.42 113.98
Support 3 112.71 112.59 113.48

USDCHF

Although USDCHF succeeded at surpassing the previous maximum at 0.97, the pair remains unable to overcome the resistance represented by the trend-line that connects Aug 18 low and Nov 7 high. Accordingly, there is a high chance of a sell-off down to 0.9560, where the US Dollar will be underpinned by the weekly S1 and monthly PP. Additional downward pressure could result in the price falling to 0.95, namely the 55-day SMA.

Traders’ Sentiment
There are slightly more people (57%) planning to profit from appreciation of the Greenback than from its debasement (43%) against the Franc. Even more (82%) are willing to purchase the Dollar 50 pips from the spot.

USDCHF Pivot Levels Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 0.9808 0.9798 0.9775
Resistance 2 0.9775 0.977 0.974
Resistance 1 0.9718 0.9708 0.9719
Pivot 0.9684 0.9679 0.9684
Support 1 0.9627 0.9617 0.9649
Support 2 0.9593 0.9588 0.9628
Support 3 0.9536 0.9526 0.9593