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Technical Analysis Jul.22

by on July 22, 2014 8:11 am BST
 

EURUSD

A rally after a test of 1.35 turned out to be quite shallow, as the currency pair was sold of as soon as it approached the monthly S1 and up-trend line. As a result, right now EUR/USD seems to be more inclined to move lower from here than to regain bullish momentum. While being contained by 1.36, the price is likely to break 1.35 and start targeting the monthly S2 and S3 at 1.3436 and 1.3369 respectively.

 

Traders’ Sentiment
Although for a long time there was no meaningful difference between the amounts of long and short positions, the former started building up an advantage over the latter. Their shares are now accordingly 57% and 43%.
 EURUSD Pivot Levels Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 1.3579 1.3577 1.3564
Resistance 2 1.3564 1.3563 1.355
Resistance 1 1.3543 1.3541 1.3542
Pivot 1.3528 1.3527 1.3528
Support 1 1.3507 1.3505 1.3514
Support 2 1.3492 1.3491 1.3506
Support 3 1.3471 1.3469 1.3492

 

GBPUSD

The resistance at 1.74 remains a viable target, given the signals of the monthly technical indicators (four are bullish and four are neutral). However, the support at 1.7042 (2009 high) has to prevent further development of the current dip. Otherwise the bullish medium-term potential will not be realised, and the price will be expected to re-test the 17-month trend-line, namely the lower boundary of the bullish channel.

 

Traders’ Sentiment
The distribution between the bullish (28%) and bearish (72%) market participants is completely unchanged from yesterday’s figures. Moreover, it is the same as five days ago. Concerning the orders, the gap between the buy and sell commands is insignificant.
 GBPUSD Pivot Levels Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 1.7136 1.7134 1.7118
Resistance 2 1.7118 1.7117 1.7101
Resistance 1 1.7092 1.709 1.7091
Pivot 1.7074 1.7073 1.7074
Support 1 1.7049 1.7047 1.7057
Support 2 1.703 1.7029 1.7047
Support 3 1.7005 1.7003 1.703

 

USDJPY

USD/JPY is currently moving away from its key support. If this bullish tendency is preserved, the pair is going to re-visit a tough supply area at 101.83/73 in the nearest future, which has recently prevented a rally from 101. Should the resistance be broken, the Dollar is going to face yet another obstacles right away—at 102.13/04, which is mainly created by the 100-day SMA and seven-month down-trend.

 

Traders’ Sentiment
The bullish traders continue to rule USD/JPY market, as they take up 70% of it (74% yesterday). As for the orders placed 100 pips from the spot, 59% are to purchase and 41% are to sell the Buck against the Japanese Yen.
 USDJPY Pivot Levels Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 101.74 101.78 101.59
Resistance 2 101.59 101.61 101.5
Resistance 1 101.5 101.54 101.44
Pivot 101.35 101.37 101.35
Support 1 101.27 101.31 101.26
Support 2 101.11 101.13 101.2
Support 3 101.03 101.07 101.11

 

USDCHF

At the moment USD/CHF is standing still below the monthly R1 and the resistance line at 0.90. Considering the previous experience at this level and the ‘sell’ signals of the monthly technical studies, the risks are most likely skewed to the downside. The path of the least resistance leads South, down to 0.89, where the monthly pivot point merges with the 200-day SMA and up-trend, thus creating a dense demand zone.

 

Traders’ Sentiment
Nearly three out of four SWFX traders are currently expecting the U.S. Dollar to appreciate, being that 74% of positions are long and 26% are short. Meanwhile, the amounts of buy (51%) and sell (49%) orders are almost equal.
 USDCHF Pivot Levels Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 0.901 0.9012 0.9
Resistance 2 0.9 0.9001 0.8993
Resistance 1 0.8991 0.8993 0.8988
Pivot 0.8981 0.8982 0.8981
Support 1 0.8973 0.8975 0.8974
Support 2 0.8962 0.8963 0.8969
Support 3 0.8954 0.8956 0.8962