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Technical Analysis Jul.21

by on July 21, 2014 6:30 am BST
 

EURUSD

Last week, despite the pair breaching a long-term down-trend, the bulls successfully defended the key level at 1.35, thus prodding EURUSD to return to the monthly S1. However, given the number and density of the supply lying overhead, there is little chance the Euro will be able to sustain its current recovery. The price is likely to turn around either at 1.3563/53 or 1.3630/1.3598 and then pierce through 1.35, thereby confirming its bearish intentions.

Traders’ Sentiment
There are still no significant changes observed in the sentiment of the market towards EURUSD—54% of traders are long and 46% are short. On the other hand, there has been a major increase in the sell orders near the spot—from 35% to 65% (50 pips around it).
EURUSD Pivot Levels Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 1.3588 1.359 1.3562
Resistance 2 1.3562 1.3563 1.3545
Resistance 1 1.3543 1.3545 1.3534
Pivot 1.3517 1.3518 1.3517
Support 1 1.3498 1.35 1.35
Support 2 1.3472 1.3473 1.3489
Support 3 1.3453 1.3455 1.3472

GBPUSD

There are less and less arguments in favour of a rally. First, the currency pair has been failing to make any meaningful progress for the last three weeks. Second, there is a decreasing number of technical indicators supporting appreciation of the Sterling. Nevertheless, there still are a lot of supports capable of preventing development of the current dip. The closest one is formed by the 2009 high at 1.7042, followed by the monthly PP and 55-day SMA.

Traders’ Sentiment
The SWFX traders remain strongly convinced that the Great Britain Pound is overvalued relative to the U.S. Dollar, as evidenced by a large share of short positions opened in the market—72% of the total amount.
GBPUSD Pivot Levels Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 1.7203 1.7205 1.716
Resistance 2 1.716 1.7161 1.7129
Resistance 1 1.7122 1.7124 1.711
Pivot 1.7079 1.708 1.7079
Support 1 1.7041 1.7043 1.7048
Support 2 1.6998 1.6999 1.7029
Support 3 1.696 1.6962 1.6998

USDJPY

Abundance of various resistances between 101.50 and 102.50 is not letting USDJPY to regain its bullish momentum. For now the support at 101 copes with the downward pressure, but a breach of this level could potentially entail a strong sell-off, since there is low concentration of demand beneath. Nonetheless, the monthly technical indicators seem to be mostly optimistic—four out of eight are presently giving ‘buy’ signals.
Traders’ Sentiment
In most pairs the Greenback is considered to be undervalued, and USDJPY is not an exception—74% of traders are currently holding long positions. As for the orders, a majority of them are to purchase the Buck against the Yen.
USDJPY Pivot Levels Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 101.73 101.73 101.59
Resistance 2 101.59 101.59 101.49
Resistance 1 101.46 101.46 101.42
Pivot 101.32 101.32 101.32
Support 1 101.19 101.19 101.22
Support 2 101.05 101.05 101.15
Support 3 100.92 100.92 101.05

USDCHF

USDCHF made a good attempt to break the resistance at 0.90 on Friday, but in the end it was unable to advance further. As a result, the downside risks substantially increased. The rate is now expected to retreat to a cluster at 0.8933/15, where the monthly pivot point merges with the 200-day SMA and a three-month up-trend. Below, there is the 100-day SMA that could help the pair restore the bullish momentum and launch yet another attack on 0.90.
Traders’ Sentiment
The sentiment stays distinctly bullish with respect to USDCHF, being that 74% of positions are presently long (71% last week). Concerning the pending orders placed 100 pips from the spot, there is completely no difference between the buy and sell ones.
USDCHF Pivot Levels Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 0.9034 0.9034 0.9019
Resistance 2 0.9019 0.9019 0.9006
Resistance 1 0.9 0.9 0.8998
Pivot 0.8985 0.8985 0.8985
Support 1 0.8967 0.8967 0.8972
Support 2 0.8951 0.8951 0.8964
Support 3 0.8933 0.8933 0.8951