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Technical Analysis Aug.8th

by on August 8, 2014 6:55 am BST
 

EURUSD

EUR/USD keeps trying to push through the support at 1.3335/28, a breach of which will pave a way towards the key level at 1.33. A sell-off beyond that point may be postponed, given the significance of the level. As suggested by some of the monthly technical indicators, there is likely to be an upward correction, possibly up to 1.35, before the currency pair posts a new low since the last quarter of the previous year.

 

Traders’ Sentiment
The sentiment of the SWFX market participants towards EUR/USD continues to fluctuate between bullish and neutral, as the difference between the bulls and bears is still minimal, only 14 percentage points in favour of the former.

 

 EURUSD Pivot Levels Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 1.3445 1.3441 1.342
Resistance 2 1.342 1.3418 1.3398
Resistance 1 1.3389 1.3385 1.3385
Pivot 1.3363 1.3361 1.3363
Support 1 1.3332 1.3328 1.3341
Support 2 1.3307 1.3305 1.3328
Support 3 1.3276 1.3272 1.3307

 

GBPUSD

As implied by the near-term technical studies, the British Pound continues to cede ground against the Dollar. The closest support that may bring relief is 1.6768/33, which mainly consists of the monthly S1 and 200-day SMA. A little lower, standing next to 1.67, is the May low, which is also likely to interfere and make it difficult for the bears to push the price South. Accordingly, a risk of a pull-back is presently increasing.

 

Traders’ Sentiment
The percentage of long positions went up from 59% to 62%, reflecting a decrease in the vale of the Sterling. At the same time the portion of the buy orders soared from 58% to 71%, meaning the bulls are likely to become even more active in the nearest future.

 

GBPUSD Pivot Levels Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 1.6894 1.6888 1.6879
Resistance 2 1.6879 1.6876 1.6863
Resistance 1 1.6853 1.6847 1.6854
Pivot 1.6838 1.6835 1.6838
Support 1 1.6812 1.6806 1.6822
Support 2 1.6797 1.6794 1.6813
Support 3 1.6772 1.6766 1.6797

 

USDJPY

USD/JPY is currently testing a cluster of supports at 101.97/82, which is considered to be able to stop the pull-back and return the pair to a bullish path. However, there are less and less technical indicators that point North, and we may see a deeper correction before the bullish momentum is fully restored. There are still important supports at 101.53 and 101.13/100.95 that have the potential to send the U.S. Dollar higher against the Yen.

Traders’ Sentiment
While there is largely no change in the distribution between the long (71%) and short (29%) positions, there are now considerably more buy orders placed 100 pips from the spot—49% yesterday and 67% after 24 hours.

 

USDJPY Pivot Levels Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 102.86 102.82 102.66
Resistance 2 102.66 102.64 102.48
Resistance 1 102.4 102.36 102.38
Pivot 102.2 102.18 102.2
Support 1 101.94 101.9 102.02
Support 2 101.74 101.72 101.92
Support 3 101.48 101.44 101.74

 

USDCHF

USD/CHF remains unable to cross 0.91, as it keeps getting pushed back after every attempt to get closer to the 2014 high. And while the daily indicators are still optimistic, neither weekly nor monthly studies are currently supporting appreciation of the Buck. It seems the price may undergo a downward correction prior to a successful attack on 0.91. A dense demand area between 0.90 and 0.89 in this case should underpin the rate.

Traders’ Sentiment
The gap between the amounts of bullish and bearish market participants stays at elevated levels, constantly being larger than 40 percentage points. A similar situation is observed between the buy (72%) and sell (28%) orders.

 

USDCHF Pivot Levels Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 0.9147 0.9149 0.9126
Resistance 2 0.9126 0.9127 0.9111
Resistance 1 0.9108 0.911 0.9102
Pivot 0.9087 0.9088 0.9087
Support 1 0.9069 0.9071 0.9072
Support 2 0.9048 0.9049 0.9063
Support 3 0.903 0.9032 0.9048