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Technical Analysis Aug.7th

by on August 7, 2014 6:24 am BST
 

EURUSD

Initially EURUSD dipped down to 1.3333, but afterwards managed to climb back to the weekly S1. Still, the selling pressure is likely to persist at least until the currency pair falls down to 1.33, the key support represented by the 2013 Q4 low. Here the Euro may commence a recovery, but the outlook should remain bearish, provided that the resistance at 1.35 (down-trend and monthly PP) stays intact.

 

Traders’ Sentiment
The bulls (55%) sustain a fractional advantage over the bears (45%), but the sentiment can become neutral or even bearish fairly quickly. In the meantime, the share of the buy orders dropped from 53% down to 39%.

 

EURUSD Pivot Levels Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 1.3456 1.3462 1.3422
Resistance 2 1.3422 1.3425 1.3401
Resistance 1 1.3401 1.3407 1.3388
Pivot 1.3367 1.337 1.3367
Support 1 1.3346 1.3352 1.3346
Support 2 1.3312 1.3315 1.3333
Support 3 1.3291 1.3297 1.3312

 

GBPUSD

Although the Cable had the potential to advance a little further, towards the 100-day SMA or even the up-trend at 1.70, the weekly pivot point turned out to be enough to halt the rally. Now, as suggested by the daily technical indicators, the Sterling is likely to negate the recent gains and fall down to 1.6768/59, where it is going to encounter the weekly and monthly S1. Slightly lower, at 1.6731, there is the 200-day SMA ready to come into play.

 

Traders’ Sentiment
The gap between the bullish and bearish market participants has slightly widened since the last report—from 14 to 18 percentage points. As for the orders, there are now more commands to purchase the Pound (58%) than to sell it (42%).

 

GBPUSD Pivot Levels Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 1.6944 1.6946 1.6914
Resistance 2 1.6914 1.6915 1.689
Resistance 1 1.6883 1.6885 1.6876
Pivot 1.6852 1.6853 1.6852
Support 1 1.6821 1.6823 1.6828
Support 2 1.679 1.6791 1.6814
Support 3 1.6759 1.6761 1.679

 

USDJPY

Despite the 200-day SMA appearing to be a reliable support, in the end the bears were able to push the pair through the demand at 102.48/46. As a result, USDJPY was in a free fall for some time, until it hit the recently breached down-trend line. Accordingly, the bias towards the Buck remains bullish, since the pair pulled back yesterday, thus confirming the bullish break-out, and most technical studies are currently pointing North.

 

Traders’ Sentiment
Though there were no significant changes in the distribution between the long (73%) and short (27%) positions, the percentage of buy orders fell noticeably—from 65% yesterday to 49% as of right now.

 

USDJPY Pivot Levels Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 103.43 103.41 103.02
Resistance 2 103.02 103.01 102.7
Resistance 1 102.58 102.56 102.5
Pivot 102.18 102.17 102.18
Support 1 101.74 101.72 101.86
Support 2 101.34 101.33 101.66
Support 3 100.89 100.87 101.34

 

USDCHF

The resistance at 0.9117/0.9099 proves to be quite strong, as USDCHF is unable to reach this year’s high for a second week, being only some 50 pips away from the peak. However, the daily and weekly indicators are bullish, meaning there is still a chance the bears are going to give in and allow the rate to re-visit 0.9156. But at the same time the longer-term bullish perspectives are becoming less and less pronounced.

 

Traders’ Sentiment
A substantial majority (73%) of the SWFX traders expects appreciation of the U.S. Dollar relative to the Franc. And the buying pressure may intensify, since 72% of pending orders (100 pips from the spot) are to enter long positions.

 

USDCHF Pivot Levels Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 0.915 0.9144 0.9133
Resistance 2 0.9133 0.913 0.9116
Resistance 1 0.9106 0.91 0.9105
Pivot 0.9088 0.9085 0.9088
Support 1 0.9061 0.9055 0.9071
Support 2 0.9044 0.9041 0.906
Support 3 0.9017 0.9011 0.9044