0 comments

Technical Analysis Aug.6th

by on August 6, 2014 8:02 am GMT
 

EURUSD

As expected, none of the nearest supports were able to underpin the price, which gave up 50 pips more. Now there is only the weekly S2 and Bollinger band that separates the spot from the 2013 Q4 low. When EURUSD reaches 1.33, there will be a good opportunity for the bulls to take advantage of the situation and start an upward correction. This rally could potentially extend to 1.35, where the three-month down-trend merges with the monthly pivot point.

 

Traders’ Sentiment
There are once again more bulls (58%) than bears (42%), but as we learned in the past, this advantage is fragile and may easily come to naught. Meanwhile, the share of buy orders increased from 40% to 53%.

 

 EURUSD Pivot Levels Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 1.3478 1.347 1.3452
Resistance 2 1.3452 1.3448 1.3426
Resistance 1 1.3412 1.3404 1.341
Pivot 1.3385 1.3381 1.3385
Support 1 1.3345 1.3337 1.336
Support 2 1.3318 1.3314 1.3344
Support 3 1.3279 1.3271 1.3318

 

GBPUSD

GBPUSD continues to recover—it has already reached the weekly PP at 1.6879. If the currency pair preserves the bullish momentum, it may soon test the 100-day SMA at 1.6916, which in turn is capable of stopping the current advancement. But the resistance area at 1.6997/79 (up-trend, 55-day SMA and monthly PP) is considered to be more important at the moment, as it ensures that the overall outlook is bearish towards the Sterling.

 

Traders’ Sentiment
Just like yesterday, there is a nominal difference between the amounts of bullish (57) and bearish (43%) market participants. The gap becomes even smaller when we turn to the distribution between the buy (49%) and sell (51%) orders.

 

 GBPUSD Pivot Levels Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 1.6938 1.6942 1.6913
Resistance 2 1.6913 1.6915 1.6897
Resistance 1 1.6895 1.6899 1.6887
Pivot 1.687 1.6872 1.687
Support 1 1.6852 1.6856 1.6853
Support 2 1.6827 1.6829 1.6843
Support 3 1.6809 1.6813 1.6827

 

USDJPY

USDJPY remains unable to decouple from the 200-day SMA, which is not caving in to the selling pressure but at the same time is failing to ignite a rally. However, given that a substantial portion of the technical indicators are pointing North, the risks are still skewed to the upside. Accordingly, the 2014 Q2 high at 104.12 is viewed as the medium-term target, especially since there are no significant resistances overhead, except for the monthly R1 at 103.54.

 

Traders’ Sentiment
There are relatively less longs than 24 hours ago, but they are nonetheless in a distinct majority—70% of the whole market, meaning as many as seven traders out of ten believe the Greenback is going to outperform the Yen in the future.

 

 USDJPY Pivot Levels Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 103.32 103.28 103.12
Resistance 2 103.12 103.1 102.95
Resistance 1 102.86 102.82 102.84
Pivot 102.66 102.64 102.66
Support 1 102.4 102.36 102.48
Support 2 102.2 102.18 102.37
Support 3 101.93 101.89 102.2

 

USDCHF

The U.S. Dollar has launched yet another attack on 0.9099, which has been lately keeping USDCHF from advancing further. If the attempt is successful, the currency pair will be in a good position to test formidability of the 2014 high at 0.9156 as well. Should the currency pair move even higher, there will be a good reason to consider the 2013 Nov 7 high at 0.9251 the next probable destination, despite the mixed monthly studies.

 

Traders’ Sentiment
While there are no changes in the sentiment towards USDCHF (73% of positions are long), there was a noticeable increase in the commands to purchase the Buck against the Franc—their share soared from 57% to 77%.

 

 USDCHF Pivot Levels Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 0.9162 0.9162 0.9137
Resistance 2 0.9137 0.9137 0.9119
Resistance 1 0.9115 0.9115 0.9108
Pivot 0.909 0.909 0.909
Support 1 0.9069 0.9069 0.9072
Support 2 0.9043 0.9043 0.9061
Support 3 0.9022 0.9022 0.9043