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Technical Analysis Aug.26th

by on August 26, 2014 7:15 am GMT
 

EURUSD

EURUSD stayed largely unchanged yesterday near 1.32, even though the currency pair opened this week with a large 40-pip downside gap and therefore is likely to close it before testing 1.31. However, the bullish correction should not extend beyond the resistance at 1.33 (2013 Q4 low and monthly S1). Instead the price is expected to slip beneath 2013 Sep low and then target the last year’s low at 1.2750.

 

Traders’ Sentiment
The bullish SWFX market participants remain in majority—right now they take up 59% of the market. As for the pending orders placed 100 pips from the spot, the percentage of buy ones fell from 61 down to 43%.

 

EURUSD Pivot Levels Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 1.3237 1.3233 1.3223
Resistance 2 1.3223 1.3221 1.3211
Resistance 1 1.3205 1.3201 1.3204
Pivot 1.3192 1.319 1.3192
Support 1 1.3174 1.317 1.318
Support 2 1.3161 1.3159 1.3173
Support 3 1.3142 1.3138 1.3161

 

GBPUSD

The Cable has already closed the downside gap, but even so it continues to move North. If this bullish tendency, opposed by the daily technical indicators, persists, the Sterling will soon hit the weekly PP and monthly S2. In case these resistances fail to stop the up-move, the supply at 1.67 (May low and weekly R1) will be there to prevent further increase in price and reignite a sell-off that was started two months ago at 1.72.

 

Traders’ Sentiment
There have been no notable changes neither in the distribution between the long (66%) and short (34%) positions, nor between the buy (48%) and sell (52%) orders, despite the Pound currently outperforming the U.S. Dollar.

 

GBPUSD Pivot Levels Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 1.6648 1.6646 1.6623
Resistance 2 1.6623 1.6622 1.6603
Resistance 1 1.6596 1.6594 1.6591
Pivot 1.6571 1.657 1.6571
Support 1 1.6544 1.6542 1.6551
Support 2 1.6519 1.6518 1.6539
Support 3 1.6492 1.649 1.6519

 

USDJPY

Regardless of the daily and monthly technical indicators mostly pointing upwards, USDJPY is currently undergoing a downward correction. At the moment the bears are in control of the market, but are likely to step aside once the rate reaches the demand at 103.50, where the monthly R1 and weekly PP levels coincide. However, if this is not enough to restore the upward momentum, there is also the July high and weekly S1 around 103.

 

Traders’ Sentiment
The last time the sentiment of the SWFX market towards USDJPY was neutral was back in January. Now there is also no significant difference between the amounts of bullish (54%) and bearish (46%) positions.

 

USDCHF Pivot Levels Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 104.68 104.68 104.47
Resistance 2 104.47 104.47 104.32
Resistance 1 104.28 104.28 104.22
Pivot 104.07 104.07 104.07
Support 1 103.88 103.88 103.92
Support 2 103.67 103.67 103.82
Support 3 103.48 103.48 103.67

 

USDCHF

Although many of the daily and weekly studies were bullish, a rally above 0.9150 turned out to be unsustainable, and USDCHF is currently falling. The nearest point where there is likely to be a change of command from bears to bulls is at 0.91, a level that proved to be significant earlier this year. In the meantime, the main support is at 0.90, where the four-month up-trend merges with the monthly PP and 55-day SMA.

 

Traders’ Sentiment
There is presently only a small difference between the long and short positions, but still in favour of the former—14 percentage points. Concerning the orders, 55% of them are to acquire and 45% are to sell the Buck against the Franc.

 

USDCHF Pivot Levels Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 0.9204 0.9206 0.9188
Resistance 2 0.9188 0.9189 0.9176
Resistance 1 0.9174 0.9176 0.9169
Pivot 0.9158 0.9159 0.9158
Support 1 0.9144 0.9146 0.9147
Support 2 0.9128 0.9129 0.914
Support 3 0.9115 0.9117 0.9128