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Technical Analysis Aug.25th

by on August 25, 2014 8:06 am BST
 

EURUSD

The U.S. Dollar strengthened relative to its counterparts over the weekend. Now EURUSD is only 100 pips away from one of its main targets at 1.31 (2013 Sep low), but the currency pair will have to breach the monthly S1 at 1.3150 first. Even though the weekly technical indicators are largely bearish right now, these supports may trigger an upward correction, which in turn is unlikely to extend beyond 1.33 (monthly S1 and 2013 Q4 low).

 

Traders’ Sentiment
There is still no change in the sentiment of the market. Just as last week, 58% of open positions are long, and the rest are short. On the other hand, the share of buy orders soared, from 31% on Friday to 61% today.

 

EURUSD Pivot Levels Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 1.3359 1.3353 1.3328
Resistance 2 1.3328 1.3325 1.3299
Resistance 1 1.3283 1.3277 1.3281
Pivot 1.3252 1.3249 1.3252
Support 1 1.3207 1.3201 1.3223
Support 2 1.3176 1.3173 1.3205
Support 3 1.3131 1.3125 1.3176

 

GBPUSD

Given a downside gap there could emerge a small bullish correction before the sell-off (since the beginning of July) resumes. The immediate resistance is at 1.66, represented by the weekly PP. But the outlook will be viewed as bearish as long as the key level at 1.67 (May low) and the 200-day SMA at 1.6750 are intact. In the meantime, a risk of a reversal, suggested by the monthly studies, will be seen as considerable only at this year’s low (1.6250).

 

Traders’ Sentiment
There has been a slight increase in the percentage of bullish traders in the SWFX market—from 63 up to 66%. At the same time there is virtually no difference between the amounts of buy and sell orders placed – 49 and 51% respectively.

 

GBPUSD Pivot Levels Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 1.6625 1.6621 1.6611
Resistance 2 1.6611 1.6609 1.6597
Resistance 1 1.6589 1.6585 1.6589
Pivot 1.6575 1.6573 1.6575
Support 1 1.6553 1.6549 1.6561
Support 2 1.6539 1.6537 1.6553
Support 3 1.6517 1.6513 1.6539

 

USDJPY

USDJPY started this week above last quarter’s high, meaning the overall risks are skewed to the upside. However, the pair may need to close the gap (retreat to 103.80) before a scenario, implied by the monthly technical indicators (four out of eight are bullish), is realised. There is a possibility of the dip extending the monthly R1 level, but the 2014 high at 105.44 will still be considered to be the pair’s future destination point.

 

Traders’ Sentiment
The sentiment with respect to USDJPY is bullish but weak, since only 56% of positions held by traders are long. But there are notably more commands to acquire the Buck—their share went up from 49 to 65%.

 

USDJPY Pivot Levels Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 104.89 104.89 104.54
Resistance 2 104.54 104.54 104.28
Resistance 1 104.2 104.2 104.11
Pivot 103.85 103.85 103.85
Support 1 103.51 103.51 103.59
Support 2 103.16 103.16 103.42
Support 3 102.82 102.82 103.16

 

USDCHF

USDCHF is forcing its way through the major supply area at 0.9176/56 at the moment. Here the currency pair is battling against the monthly R1 and 2014 high, which may force the Greenback to step back to 0.90 before this resistance is broken. Nevertheless, in the end the bulls are likely to prevail and push the price up to 0.9250, namely the 2013 Nov 7 high, which is also reinforced by the monthly R2.

 

Traders’ Sentiment
Unlike five days ago, when as many as 74% of positions were long, the market is now undecided regarding the future path of USDCHF—55% expect the Dollar to appreciate and 45% believe the Franc is going to outperform.

 

USDCHF Pivot Levels Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 0.921 0.9212 0.9182
Resistance 2 0.9182 0.9183 0.9162
Resistance 1 0.9159 0.9161 0.915
Pivot 0.9131 0.9132 0.9131
Support 1 0.9108 0.911 0.9112
Support 2 0.908 0.9081 0.91
Support 3 0.9057 0.9059 0.908