0 comments

Technical Analysis Aug.21st

by on August 21, 2014 7:01 am GMT
 

EURUSD

Despite toughness of the demand area around 1.33 and ‘buy’ signals on the monthly chart, the bears continued to push the price lower. The currency pair has already closed beneath the 2013 Q4 low and monthly S1, meaning the downward momentum is likely to persist in the coming weeks. The next significant support level is represented by the monthly S2 at 1.3450, followed by the 2013 September low at 1.31.

 

Traders’ Sentiment
The share of bullish market participants continues to grow while the Euro is becoming cheaper. Right now 58% of open positions are long. Concerning the pending orders, there is currently no difference between the amounts of buy and sell ones.

 

EURUSD Pivot Levels Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 1.3369 1.3359 1.3345
Resistance 2 1.3345 1.334 1.332
Resistance 1 1.3303 1.3293 1.3304
Pivot 1.3279 1.3274 1.3279
Support 1 1.3236 1.3226 1.3254
Support 2 1.3213 1.3208 1.3238
Support 3 1.317 1.316 1.3213

 

GBPUSD

An attempt of the bulls to negate the selling pressure at 1.66 turned out to be fruitless, as all of the intraday gains were eventually negated and the bears remained in control of the market. And even though the monthly studies suggest the down-trend is about to come to an end, the Sterling has a low chance of starting a robust recovery before falling down to this year’s low at 1.6250. There is also an important level at 1.6450—monthly S3.

 

Traders’ Sentiment
Just as in EURUSD, here the part of long positions is also increasing. The bulls now constitute 65% of the market (61% five days ago). However, the gap between the buy and sell orders is closing—it has fallen from 18 to 4 percentage points during the last 24 hours.

 

GBPUSD Pivot Levels Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 1.6743 1.6733 1.6711
Resistance 2 1.6711 1.6706 1.6677
Resistance 1 1.6654 1.6644 1.6656
Pivot 1.6622 1.6617 1.6622
Support 1 1.6565 1.6555 1.6588
Support 2 1.6533 1.6528 1.6567
Support 3 1.6476 1.6466 1.6533

 

USDJPY

Since the July peak is now out of the way, just as the monthly R1, there is only the 2014 Q2 high at 104.12 seen capable of preventing a re-test of 105.44—this year’s highest point. At the same time the monthly technical studies confirm that the upward momentum is here to stay—four our of eight imply appreciation of the Dollar. In the meantime, the recently breached resistance at 103 should now act as a floor for the near-term dips.

 

Traders’ Sentiment
There has been a major drop in the percentage of long positions held on USDJPY since yesterday’s update—it has plunged from 75 down to 59%. But at the same time there are less sell orders—their portion declined from 63 to 58%.

 

USDGPY Pivot Levels Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 105.02 105.12 104.43
Resistance 2 104.43 104.48 104.07
Resistance 1 104.08 104.18 103.85
Pivot 103.49 103.54 103.49
Support 1 103.13 103.23 103.13
Support 2 102.55 102.6 102.91
Support 3 102.19 102.29 102.55

 

USDCHF

The resistance at 0.91 had been finally broken, meaning there are now no obstacles for USD/CHF to touch 0.9156. This supply zone may also prove to be difficult to cross, considering that it is reinforced by the monthly R1 level and the technical indicators are not in favour of a rally. Should the bulls show weakness in the face of 2014 high, the support at 0.90 will be there to keep the rate away from the 100 and 200-day SMAs.

 

Traders’ Sentiment
According to the SWFX market, USDCHF has already reached its fair value, being that the sentiment has changed from strongly bullish (74%) to neutral (54%). The share of buy orders also fell, but less noticeably, from 75 to 67%.

 

USDCHF Pivot Levels Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 0.9201 0.9209 0.917
Resistance 2 0.917 0.9174 0.9151
Resistance 1 0.9152 0.916 0.914
Pivot 0.9121 0.9125 0.9121
Support 1 0.9104 0.9112 0.9102
Support 2 0.9072 0.9076 0.9091
Support 3 0.9055 0.9063 0.9072