0 comments

Technical Analysis Aug.20th

by on August 20, 2014 8:47 am GMT
 

EURUSD

EURUSD, as suggested by the near-term technical indicators, has finally broken 1.3350 to the downside, which allowed it to re-test the 2013 Q4 low at 1.33. Although this support is reinforced by the monthly S1 and the monthly studies lean to the bullish side, the bias will remain negative presumably until the 2013 September low at 1.31 is reached. But at the same time the resistance at 1.35 (major down-trend) must stay intact.

 

Traders’ Sentiment
Some of the market participants start viewing the Euro as oversold and enter counter-trend positions—the share of the long positions increased from 54 to 57%. At the same time there is no difference between the amounts of buy (49%) and sell (51%) orders.

 

 EURUSD Pivot Levels Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 1.3396 1.3392 1.3378
Resistance 2 1.3378 1.3376 1.336
Resistance 1 1.3349 1.3345 1.3349
Pivot 1.3331 1.3329 1.3331
Support 1 1.3302 1.3298 1.3313
Support 2 1.3284 1.3282 1.3302
Support 3 1.3254 1.325 1.3284

 

GBPUSD

After being fairly quiet on Monday the Sterling effortlessly pierced a number of significant supports yesterday, including the May low and monthly S2 at 1.67 and 1.6650 respectively. Since there are no more important demand zones nearby, the price is expected to move even further South, regardless of the ‘buy’ signals on the monthly time-frame. Once the monthly S3 at 1.6450 is broken, the 2014 low at 1.6250 is likely to be targeted next.

 

Traders’ Sentiment
Traders take advantage of lower prices and mostly bet on a reversal—64% of open positions are long. Concerning the orders, a majority (59%) of them is set to purchase the British Pound against the Greenback.

 

 GBPUSD Pivot Levels Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 1.6808 1.6792 1.6767
Resistance 2 1.6767 1.6759 1.6723
Resistance 1 1.6693 1.6677 1.6696
Pivot 1.6652 1.6644 1.6652
Support 1 1.6579 1.6563 1.6608
Support 2 1.6537 1.6529 1.6581
Support 3 1.6464 1.6448 1.6537

 

USDJPY

The U.S. Dollar is strengthening across the board, as evidenced by USDJPY surging above the July high. However, the currency pair is yet to close above 103 in order to confirm its intentions to advance further. The next objective could by the monthly R1 at 103.50, but a major test of the current upward momentum will be at 104—the highest point reached during the previous quarter. Meanwhile, most of the indicators are bullish.

 

Traders’ Sentiment
The SWFX market participants got encouraged by the pair’s recent performance and jumped on the bandwagon. As a result, three out of four open positions are now long. As for the orders, 63% of them are to sell the Dollar.

 

 USDJPY Pivot Levels Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 103.55 103.61 103.26
Resistance 2 103.26 103.29 103.09
Resistance 1 103.1 103.16 102.98
Pivot 102.81 102.84 102.81
Support 1 102.66 102.72 102.64
Support 2 102.37 102.4 102.53
Support 3 102.21 102.27 102.37

 

USDCHF

The rate has just broken the upper boundary of the flag pattern to the upside, meaning the current rally should at least extend up to the 2013 Nov 7 high at 0.9250. However, we should still be wary of the troublesome resistance at 0.91, as it has already prevented appreciation of the Buck on several occasions earlier this month. Should the bears gain the upper hand, the support at 0.90 will have to intervene and revitalise the bullish momentum once again.

 

Traders’ Sentiment
The distribution between the bulls (74%) and bears (26%) remains completely unchanged compared to the yesterday’s report. In the meantime, the buy orders enhanced their advantage (from 61 to 75%) over the sell commands.

 

 USDCHF Pivot Levels Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 0.9141 0.9147 0.9117
Resistance 2 0.9117 0.912 0.9104
Resistance 1 0.9105 0.9111 0.9096
Pivot 0.9082 0.9085 0.9082
Support 1 0.907 0.9076 0.9068
Support 2 0.9047 0.905 0.906
Support 3 0.9035 0.9041 0.9047