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Technical Analysis Aug.1st

by on August 1, 2014 6:18 am GMT
 

EURUSD

EURUSD continues to grind lower, and it does not seem we are going to observe a pronounced bullish correction before the pair reaches the 2013 Q4 low at 1.33. Then there will be a high chance of a pull-back up to 1.35, a level that has proven to be fairly important this year (it is also reinforced by the monthly PP and down-trend). Afterwards the sell-off should resume, but this time the Euro will be expected to target the 2013 Sep low at 1.31.

Traders’ Sentiment
The bullish views are getting more popular, as it is becoming cheaper to acquire the single currency. Right now 59% of open positions are long and the remaining 41% are short. But concerning the orders, 67% of them are to sell the Euro against the Buck.

EURUSD Pivot Levels Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 1.3431 1.3433 1.3416
Resistance 2 1.3416 1.3417 1.3405
Resistance 1 1.3402 1.3404 1.3398
Pivot 1.3387 1.3388 1.3387
Support 1 1.3373 1.3375 1.3376
Support 2 1.3358 1.3359 1.3369
Support 3 1.3344 1.3346 1.3358

GBPUSD

There is now little hope for the bulls, being that GBPUSD has broken most of its main supports. The monthly technical indicators may still remain positive, but, given the absence of any significant demand areas nearby, the risks are heavily skewed to the downside. One of the few levels that are deemed capable of turning the current bearish tendency around is 1.67, formed by the 200-day SMA and May low.

Traders’ Sentiment
There is still no difference between the amounts of bullish (51%) and bearish (49%) market participants, meaning the overall sentiment is neutral. Speaking of the orders, there is also no gap between the buy (50%) and sell (50%) ones.

GBPUSD Pivot Levels Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 1.6995 1.6995 1.696
Resistance 2 1.696 1.696 1.6934
Resistance 1 1.6925 1.6925 1.6918
Pivot 1.6891 1.6891 1.6891
Support 1 1.6856 1.6856 1.6864
Support 2 1.6822 1.6822 1.6848
Support 3 1.6786 1.6786 1.6822

USDJPY

It look a little longer than initially expected, but the upward momentum is finally gaining traction. This is evidenced by a majority of the technical indicators on all time-frames giving ‘buy’ signals. Moreover, the scarcity of any notable resistances decreases a possibility of the pair making a sudden U-turn. The only serious obstacle USDJPY has to face before testing the 2014 Q2 high is the monthly R1 at 103.54.

Traders’ Sentiment
Just as yesterday or five days ago, the sentiment in the SWFX market is strongly bullish with respect to USDJPY—as many as 74% of open positions are long, leaving the bears in a distinct minority with only 26%.

USDJPY Pivot Levels Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 103.22 103.2 103.11
Resistance 2 103.11 103.1 103
Resistance 1 102.94 102.92 102.94
Pivot 102.83 102.82 102.83
Support 1 102.65 102.63 102.72
Support 2 102.55 102.54 102.66
Support 3 102.37 102.35 102.55

USDCHF

USDCHF took a break ahead of the weekly R2 and Bollinger band, but there should be no difficulties for the pair to reach the 2014 peak at 0.9156, as suggested by the daily and weekly studies. If we get to see trading taking place above this level, we will consider the 2013 Nov 7 high as the next target, but it must be noted that the monthly indicators are not in favour of a rally, except for the neutral ones most are pointing downwards.

Traders’ Sentiment
While there is a clear advantage in the number of longs (74% of the market), 50 pips from the spot a majority of the commands is to sell the U.S. Dollar against the Swiss Franc. Though 100 pips from the spot already 63% of the orders are to buy the Greenback.

USDCHF Pivot Levels Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 0.9127 0.9127 0.9115
Resistance 2 0.9115 0.9115 0.9105
Resistance 1 0.91 0.91 0.9098
Pivot 0.9088 0.9088 0.9088
Support 1 0.9073 0.9073 0.9078
Support 2 0.9061 0.9061 0.9071
Support 3 0.9046 0.9046 0.9061