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Technical Analysis Aug.15th

by on August 15, 2014 8:04 am BST
 

EURUSD

Pair’s Outlook
Despite constant attempts to escape the recently established trading range EURUSD continues to move sideways. In order to revive the downward momentum the currency pair will have to break the support at 1.3350, this will imply a test of the demand area at 1.35 (2013 Q4 low and monthly S1). And while the near-term technical indicators are in favour of such a dip, monthly studies are still largely against the bearish activity.

Traders’ Sentiment
While the distribution between the bullish and bearish SWFX market participants is almost the same as yesterday—53 and 47% respectively, the share of orders set to sell the Euro went up, namely from 49 to 56%.

 EURUSD Pivot Levels Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 1.3455 1.3451 1.3431
Resistance 2 1.3431 1.3429 1.3409
Resistance 1 1.3396 1.3392 1.3395
Pivot 1.3372 1.337 1.3372
Support 1 1.3336 1.3332 1.3349
Support 2 1.3313 1.3311 1.3335
Support 3 1.3277 1.3273 1.3313

GBPUSD

Pair’s Outlook
Wednesday’s sell-off did not extend beyond the support at 1.67, where the Cable currently resides. But, according to the daily studies, the bearish pressure is unlikely to subside just yet. A breach of this level will expose the 2014 low at 1.6250. On the other hand, most of the monthly indicators are pointing upwards, meaning soon there might be a bullish correction, though this will require GBPUSD to rise above the dense resistance at 1.6750.

Traders’ Sentiment
The sentiment towards the British Pound remains perfectly unchanged, as 61% of open positions are currently long, only a fraction away from the 10-day average (60%). As for the orders, there is no difference between the buy (52%) and sell (48%) ones.

 GBPUSD Pivot Levels Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 1.6742 1.6744 1.672
Resistance 2 1.672 1.6721 1.6704
Resistance 1 1.6703 1.6705 1.6695
Pivot 1.668 1.6681 1.668
Support 1 1.6663 1.6665 1.6665
Support 2 1.664 1.6641 1.6656
Support 3 1.6624 1.6626 1.664

USDJPY

Pair’s Outlook
Without any particular difficulty USDJPY closed above the monthly PP and 200-day SMA, posting a fourth daily gain in a row and opening a path towards the July high at 103. In case the currency pair manages to gain a foothold above this point, among the significant resistances there will only be the monthly R1 at 103.50 guarding the 2014 Q2 high. Meanwhile, any fluctuations to the North from 101.53 should not endanger the bullish outlook.

Traders’ Sentiment
As the U.S. Dollar appreciates, it seems that little by little traders are starting to take profits, being that the share of longs is slowly declining. The percentage of buy orders 50 pips from the spot also dropped, from 59% to 46%.

 USDJPY Pivot Levels Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 103.02 103.04 102.84
Resistance 2 102.84 102.85 102.7
Resistance 1 102.67 102.69 102.62
Pivot 102.49 102.5 102.49
Support 1 102.33 102.35 102.36
Support 2 102.15 102.16 102.28
Support 3 101.98 102 102.15

USDCHF

Pair’s Outlook
The sellers overpowered buyers yesterday and pushed the rate away from 0.91 to the weekly PP. If this support fails to keep USDCHF afloat, the monthly pivot point at 0.9016 and possibly the up-trend at 0.90 will have to step in to prevent the price from falling lower. In an unlikely case of the latter demand area giving in as well, the 100 and 200-day SMAs at 0.8950 will be expected to come to bulls’ rescue.

Traders’ Sentiment
Apparently, some of the bullish SWFX traders have been discouraged by poor performance of USDCHF recently, since their share in the market fell from 75% to 71% compared to the previous report. The buy order were also in decline—from 83% to 70%.

 USDCHF Pivot Levels Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 0.9142 0.9144 0.9114
Resistance 2 0.9114 0.9115 0.9094
Resistance 1 0.9091 0.9093 0.9082
Pivot 0.9063 0.9064 0.9063
Support 1 0.9041 0.9043 0.9044
Support 2 0.9013 0.9014 0.9032
Support 3 0.899 0.8992 0.9013