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Technical Analysis Aug.14th

by on August 14, 2014 6:48 am GMT
 

EURUSD

The currency pair remains trapped between 1.3450 and 1.3350, as neither bulls nor bears are able to push the price in any direction. Still, EURUSD is considered to be inclined to move lower, towards 1.33, where the 2013 Q4 low merges with the monthly S1 level. From there the Euro could try to launch an attack on the 2013 September low at 1.31. But for this scenario to be valid, the resistance at 1.35 (down-trend and monthly PP) must stay intact.

 

Traders’ Sentiment
The sentiment of the SWFX market is neutral with respect to EURUSD, being that 54% of traders are long and 46% are short on the pair. Similarly, there is no significant difference between the shares of buy (51%) and sell (49%) orders.

 

EURUSD Pivot Levels Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 1.3479 1.3475 1.3447
Resistance 2 1.3447 1.3445 1.3419
Resistance 1 1.3406 1.3402 1.3402
Pivot 1.3374 1.3372 1.3374
Support 1 1.3333 1.3329 1.3346
Support 2 1.3301 1.3299 1.3329
Support 3 1.326 1.3256 1.3301

 

GBPUSD

A bullish scenario did not transpire, as the price bounced off the weekly PP and plummeted through some of the major supports (monthly S1 and 200-day SMA) on the back of softer BoE rhetoric. Right now the Pound is trading near the May low and seems to be willing to extend the recent losses. If this is the case, GBPUSD will be expected to travel four and a half figures South over the coming months and eventually meet this year’s low at 1.6250.

 

Traders’ Sentiment
There has been a slight increase in the percentage of long positions, namely from 59 to 61%. At the same time the share of buy orders placed 50 pips from the spot soared from 51 to 71%, as the price of the Sterling noticeably declined.

 

GBPUSD Pivot Levels Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 1.6951 1.6925 1.6897
Resistance 2 1.6897 1.6884 1.6837
Resistance 1 1.6793 1.6767 1.6799
Pivot 1.6739 1.6726 1.6739
Support 1 1.6635 1.6609 1.6679
Support 2 1.6581 1.6568 1.6641
Support 3 1.6476 1.645 1.6581

 

USDJPY

Though the daily technical indicators are no longer bullish like the monthly studies, but are rather mixed, the U.S. Dollar keeps gaining ground against the Yen. The 200-day SMA at 102.40 seems to be already out of the way, meaning we could soon see a re-test of the July highs. Should this resistance at 103 be broken, the next target will be the monthly R1 level at 103.50, followed by the 2014 Q2 high at 104.

 

Traders’ Sentiment
The portion of bulls in the market stays above 70%, meaning the sentiment is strongly bullish towards USDJPY and traders expect the Buck to appreciate. There are also significantly more buy orders (61%) than the sell ones (39%).

 

USDJPY Pivot Levels Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 102.88 102.9 102.71
Resistance 2 102.71 102.72 102.59
Resistance 1 102.56 102.58 102.51
Pivot 102.39 102.4 102.39
Support 1 102.24 102.26 102.27
Support 2 102.07 102.08 102.19
Support 3 101.92 101.94 102.07

 

USDCHF

Just as yesterday or earlier this August USDCHF’s efforts to resume advancement are fruitless—the resistance at 0.91 continues to act as a ceiling and is not letting the pair to re-visit this year’s high. However, it is too early to claim that the bullish momentum is no longer topical and that we are about to witness a reversal. There is still a large number of supports between 0.90 and 0.89 ready to help the Greenback to recover.

 

Traders’ Sentiment
Despite the exchange rate staying calm, the distribution between the longs and shorts became even more skewed in favour of the former—75%. And the buying pressure may only increase, being that 83% of pending orders are to purchase the Greenback.

 

USDCHF Pivot Levels Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 0.9158 0.916 0.9128
Resistance 2 0.9128 0.9129 0.9106
Resistance 1 0.9101 0.9103 0.9093
Pivot 0.9071 0.9072 0.9071
Support 1 0.9044 0.9046 0.9049
Support 2 0.9014 0.9015 0.9036
Support 3 0.8987 0.8989 0.9014