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Technical Analysis Aug.13th

by on August 13, 2014 7:59 am BST
 

EURUSD

EURUSD is currently eroding the weekly S1 at 1.3350, a breach of which is expected to lead to a test of the 2013 Q4 low at 1.33. If the bears continue pushing the price South even then, despite the monthly indicators being against a rise of the price, the sell-off may extend through the monthly pivots towards the 2013 Sep low at 1.31. In the meantime, any rallies should be stopped at 1.35, where the down-trend merges with the monthly PP and 55-day SMA.

 

Traders’ Sentiment
Just like there is no significant difference between the numbers of long (54%) and short (46%) positions, the gap between the commands placed to buy (46%) and to sell (54%) is also negligible at the moment.

 

EURUSD Pivot Levels Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 1.3433 1.3435 1.3408
Resistance 2 1.3408 1.3409 1.339
Resistance 1 1.3386 1.3388 1.3379
Pivot 1.3361 1.3362 1.3361
Support 1 1.3339 1.3341 1.3343
Support 2 1.3314 1.3315 1.3332
Support 3 1.3292 1.3294 1.3314

 

GBPUSD

After the Cable approached the 200-day SMA, the currency pair received a strong impetus and covered a portion of the losses made last Friday. Right now the Sterling is facing the weekly PP at 1.6810. If this resistance is broken, there will be room for a larger bullish correction, possibly to the 100-day SMA just above 1.69. Though the bias will remain to the downside as long as the 2009 high at 1.7050 stays intact.

 

Traders’ Sentiment
Most of the SWFX market participants expect the Sterling to outperform the U.S. Dollar, being that 59% of open positions are long. Meanwhile, the share of buy orders 50 pips from the spot noticeably declined, from 79 to 51%.

 

GBPUSD Pivot Levels Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 1.6886 1.6892 1.6851
Resistance 2 1.6851 1.6854 1.6828
Resistance 1 1.6827 1.6833 1.6814
Pivot 1.6792 1.6795 1.6792
Support 1 1.6769 1.6775 1.677
Support 2 1.6734 1.6737 1.6756
Support 3 1.671 1.6716 1.6734

 

USDJPY

Although the U.S. Dollar is not as lively as expected after diving to 101.53, the currency is nevertheless grinding higher. Still, there is a number of resistances that must be overcome, such as the monthly PP and 200-day SMA. USDJPY will then have a good opportunity to build on the success and reach the 2014 Q2 high at 104. For the time being the daily and monthly technical studies are supporting this course of events.

 

Traders’ Sentiment
The SWFX traders remain net buyers of the U.S. Dollar against the Yen—73% of open positions are currently long. At the same time the percentage of buy orders set 50 pips from the spot price went up from 38 to 54%.

 

USDJPY Pivot Levels Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 102.68 102.7 102.52
Resistance 2 102.52 102.53 102.42
Resistance 1 102.41 102.43 102.35
Pivot 102.25 102.26 102.25
Support 1 102.14 102.16 102.15
Support 2 101.98 101.99 102.08
Support 3 101.87 101.89 101.98

 

USDCHF

Yesterday’s attempt to break 0.91 did not turn out to be successful. Accordingly, USDCHF keeps trading under the weekly R1 level. The pair nonetheless has the potential to rise and challenge this year’s highest point, namely 0.9156. The bullish outlook is based on the premise of two dense demand areas supporting the price, specifically around 0.90 (up-trend, monthly PP and 55-day SMA) and around 0.8950 (monthly S1 together with 100 and 200-day SMAs).

 

Traders’ Sentiment
While there is still no change in the distribution between the bulls (72%) and bears (28%) in the market, right now there are relatively a lot more buy orders than yesterday, as their share 50 pips around the spot jumped from 47 to 74%.

 

USDCHF Pivot Levels Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 0.9133 0.9129 0.9119
Resistance 2 0.9119 0.9117 0.9105
Resistance 1 0.9098 0.9094 0.9097
Pivot 0.9083 0.9081 0.9083
Support 1 0.9062 0.9058 0.9069
Support 2 0.9048 0.9046 0.9061
Support 3 0.9027 0.9023 0.9048